Multiple observational data sets and atmosphere-only simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 are analysed to characterise recent rainfall variability and trends over Africa focusing on 1983–2010. Datasets exhibiting spurious variability, linked in part to a reduction in rain gauge density, were identified. The remaining observations display coherent increases in annual Sahel rainfall (29 to 43 mm yr per decade), decreases in March – May East African rainfall (- 14 to – 65 mm yr per decade), and increases in annual Southern Africa rainfall (32 to 41 mm yr per decade). However, CentralAfrica annual rainfall trends vary in sign ( – 10 to +39 mm yr per decade). For Southern Africa, observed and sea surface temperature (SST)-forced model simulated rainfall variability are significantly correlated (r~0.5)and linked to SST patterns associated with recent strengthening of the Paci fic Walker circulation.
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