Identifying climate services needs for national planning: Insights from Malawi

Katharine Vincent, Andrew J. Dougill, Jami L. Dixon, Lindsay C. Stringer and Tracy Cull

The importance of climate services, i.e. providing targeted, tailored, and timely weather and climate information, has gained momentum, but requires improved understanding of user needs. This article identifies the opportunities and barriers to the use of climate services for planning in Malawi, to identify the types of information that can better inform future adaptation decisions in sub-Saharan Africa. From policy analysis, stakeholder interviews, and a national workshop utilizing serious games, it is determined that only 5–10 day and seasonal forecasts are currently being used in government decision making. Impediments to greater integration of climate services include spatial and temporal scale, accessibility, timing, credibility and the mismatch in timeframes between planning cycles (1–5 years) and climate projections (over 20 years). Information that could more usefully inform planning decisions includes rainfall distribution within a season, forecasts with 2–3 week lead times, likely timing and location of extreme events in the short term (1–5 years), and projections (e.g. rainfall and temperature change) in the medium term (6–20 years). Development of a national set of scenarios would also make climate information more accessible to decision makers, and capacity building around such scenarios would enable its improved use in short- to medium-term planning. Improved climate science and its integration with impact models offer exciting opportunities for integrated climate-resilient planning across sub-Saharan Africa. Accrual of positive impacts requires enhanced national capacity to interpret climate information and implement communication strategies across sectors.

Policy relevance
For climate services to achieve their goal of improving adaptation decision making, it is necessary to understand the decision making process and how and when various types of weather and climate information can be incorporated. Through a case study of public sector planning in Malawi, this article highlights relevant planning and policy-making processes. The current use of weather and climate information and needs, over various timescales – sub-annual to short term (1–5 years) to medium term (6–20 years) – is outlined. If climate scientists working with boundary organizations are able to address these issues in a more targeted, sector-facing manner they will improve the uptake of climate services and the likelihood of climate-resilient decisions across sub-Saharan Africa.

Climate model simulation of the South Indian Ocean Convergence Zone: mean state and variability

Melissa J. Lazenby, Martin C. Todd, Yi Wang

Evaluation of climate model performance at regional scales is essential in determining confidence in simulations of present and future climate. Here we developed a process-based approach focussing on the South Indian Ocean Convergence Zone (SIOCZ), a large-scale, austral summer rainfall feature extending across southern Africa into the southwest Indian Ocean. Simulation of the SIOCZ was evaluated for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Comparison was made between CMIP5 and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) models to diagnose sources of biases associated with coupled ocean-atmosphere processes. Models were assessed in terms of mean SIOCZ characteristics and processes of interannual variability. Most models simulated a SIOCZ feature, but were typically too zonally oriented. A systematic bias of excessive precipitation was found over southern Africa and the Indian Ocean, but not particularly along the SIOCZ. Excessive precipitation over the continent may be associated with excessively high low-level moisture flux around the Angola Low found in most models, which is almost entirely due to circulation biases in models. AMIP models represented precipitation more realistically over the Indian Ocean, implying a potential coupling error. Interannual variability in the SIOCZ was evaluated through empirical orthogonal function analysis, where results showed a clear dipole pattern, indicative of a northeast-southwest movement of the SIOCZ. The drivers of this shift were significantly related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the subtropical Indian Ocean dipole in observations. However, the models did not capture these teleconnections well, limiting our confidence in model representation of variability.

Corresponding author: M.Lazenby@sussex.ac.uk

July 26, 2016
// Climate science

The Bolivian, Botswana, and Bilybara Highs and Southern Hemisphere drought/floods

C.J.C. Reason

Semipermanent anticyclones in the midlevel troposphere over the subtropical landmasses are a prominent component of Southern Hemisphere climate. Typically, they occur over Bolivia, Botswana/Namibia, and northwestern Australia from austral spring to about April and are strongest in late summer. Here a mode of variability is studied that modulates the strength of these midlevel anticyclones and which is not strongly tied to El Niño–Southern Oscillation. This mode leads to variations in January–March rainfall over large parts of South America, southern Africa, and Australia on both interannual and near-decadal scales.

Read the introduction to the article here and learn how you can access the full pdf.

July 26, 2016
// Extreme weather, Water

Report of stakeholders workshop – Senegal

Organised by Senegalese Institute for Agricultural Research (ISRA) the workshop “Expect extreme, adapt practices, manage risk and control the impacts of climate change on the Senegalese Agriculture by 2050” is a joint initiative of two projects that contribute significantly to the emerging debates on prevention the effects of climate change, food security and sustainable development in Africa: The CaSA project (Carbon Soils for Sustainable Agriculture in Africa) led by ISRA and AMMA-2050.

FCFA pilot study in Ghana

CSAG, START, SEI and University of Ghana W

As a precursor to the Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) research activities, CDKN, on behalf of DFID commissioned a series of case study activities with the purposes of exploring the climate science needs of decision makers in Africa. This document focuses on the findings in Ghana.

The use of climate services for decision making in the ports sector

HR Wallingford

Infrastructure is a priority areas for the integration of climate science into decision making. Infrastructure which is being planned now may now be operational in a future climate significantly different to the historical climate commonly used for planning and design. Existing and planned infrastructure assets may also not be able to cope sufficiently with current levels of climate variability, with climate change exacerbating future risks. This is especially true of long-lived infrastructure, operational over decades and for periods often exceeding its original design life.

This paper focuses on port infrastructure in sub-Saharan Africa.

Analysis of Existing Weather and Climate Information for Malawi

Katharine Vincent, Andrew J. Dougill, Jami Dixon, Lindsay C. Stringer, Tracy Cull, David D. Mkwambisi and Diana Chanika

The paper reviews the scope of weather and climate information available for Malawi, taking into account both southern African and international sources of information. It also provides an overview of Malawi’s current climate, nature of recent observed changes, and projected future changes based on a combination of Global Climate Model (GCM) ensembles (under the Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP, scenarios) as cited in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report, including both statistically- and dynamically-downscaled projections.

Examining the utility and use of long-term climate information for hydropower scheme in sub-Saharan Africa

HR Wallingford

This paper investigates the current and potential use of long-term climate information for decision making for hydropower schemes in Saharan Africa. Hydropower schemes are long-lived infrastructure. These are pieces of infrastructure that usually can be maintained for a significantly greater number of years than most other capital assets. The main objectives of this paper are to provide evidence on risks and opportunities which climate change presents to hydropower schemes; and the use of climate services in medium to long-term decision making related to hydropower infrastructure.

Co-exploratory climate risk workshops: Experiences from urban Africa

A. Steynor, J. Padgham, C. Jack, B. Hewitson, C. Lennard

Co-production is increasingly recognised as integral to appropriate use and uptake of climate information into decision-making. However, the success of co-production is contingent on an innate understanding of the context in which it is being implemented. Climate knowledge co-production in Africa is unique and requires a nuanced approach because of the immediacy of a myriad of decision challenges on the continent, thereby making it more challenging to engage decision-makers in co-production processes around climate. Given these challenges, the process described here, referred to as “co-exploration”, was designed to complement the multi-stressor decision-making context of various African cities. Users and producers of science work together in an equitable framework to co-explore the urban decision-making space. While the dialogue has potential to inform the development of the science, it is not an explicit expectation of the process.

The paper describes the context for a place-based co-exploratory analysis of climate risks, the elements and steps incorporated in the approach, reflections on the effectiveness of this approach in addressing multi-stressor, place-based decision-making and the challenges that still remain in further refining the approach. The co-exploration approach is complementary to the objectives of the Global Framework for Climate Services and provides lessons for uptake of climate information into urban adaptation planning in Africa.

Read the full article on ScienceDirect.com

FRACTAL Seminar Understanding Urban Governance: Entrypoints for climate science

Dianne Scott, Gilbert Siame & Tasila Banda

The Future Climate for Africa programme together with the Future Resilience for African Cities and Lands (FRACTAL) research team hosted a critical discussion on approaches for understanding the governance structures that shape medium-term development decisions taken in various African contexts and at various scales (e.g. city region, catchment, and national).