CI4T Briefing note for Malawi

Climate change is a global phenomenon with potential effects at the local level. Our analysis of climate model projections indicates that mean annual temperature for Malawi may increase by 2.3 – 6.3°C by the 2090s (Figure 1), while rainfall projections are more uncertain (Figure 2). We observe that temperature and rainfall extremes are expected to increase. For example, the number of days with temperature more than 30°C is expected to increase, and the number of rainy days are expected to decrease. Tea, an important export of Malawi, is highly climate-sensitive, and climate change could affect future tea production and quality. Since tea stakeholders have long planning horizons, it is important to analyse climate change impacts and potential adaptation options at a scale of existing tea plantations and with respect to the aspects of the climate to which tea production and quality is most sensitive.