PUBLICATIONS

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Implications of improved representation of convection for the East Africa water budget using a convection permitting model

Declan L. Finney, John H. Marsham, Lawrence S. Jackson, Elizabeth J. Kendon, David P. Rowell, Penelope M. Boorman, Richard J. Keane, Rachel A. Stratton and Catherine A. Senior

The precipitation and diabatic heating resulting from moist convection make it a key component of the atmospheric water budget in the tropics. With convective parametrisation being a known source of uncertainty in global models, convection-permitting (CP) models are increasingly being…

Dry-lines in Southern Africa: Rediscovering the Congo Air Boundary

Emma Howard and Richard Washington

Projected rainfall decline in southern Africa is likely to be highly sensitive to subtleties in the local atmospheric circulation. In an effort to understand the regional circulation complexities, a novel algorithm is developed to identify the Congo Air Boundary (CAB)…

Evidence of crop production losses in West Africa due to historical global warming in two crop models

Benjamin Sultan, Dimitri Defrance and Toshichika Iizumi

Achieving food security goals in West Africa will depend on the capacity of the agricultural sector to feed the rapidly growing population and to moderate the adverse impacts of climate change. Indeed, a number of studies anticipate a reduction of…

Working paper: An Embedded Researcher approach to integrate climate information into decision making in southern African cities: lessons from FRACTAL

Lulu Pretorius; Anna Taylor; Kornelia N Iipinge; Brenda Mwalukanga; Hecrálito Mucavele; Rudo Mamombe; Sandra Zenda; Alice McClure

There is often a disconnection or gap between scientific knowledge and the implementation of actions aimed at addressing related problems. This gap is especially evident in fields with complex interactions between a multitude of factors and actors, such as sustainability…

Future changes and uncertainty in decision-relevant measures of East African climate

F. Jorge Bornemann, David P. Rowell, Barbara Evans, Dan J. Lapworth, Kamazima Lwiza, David M.J. Macdonald, John H. Marsham, Kindie Tesfaye, Matthew J. Ascott, and Celia Way

The need for the development of adaptation strategies for climate change in Africa is becoming critical. For example, infrastructure with a long lifespan now needs to be designed or adapted to account for a future climate that will be different…

What can we know about future precipitation in Africa? Robustness, significance and added value of projections from a large ensemble of regional climate models

Alessandro Dosio, Richard G. Jones, Christopher Jack, Christopher Lennard, Grigory Nikulin, and Bruce Hewitson

We employ a large ensemble of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the COordinated Regional-climate Downscaling EXperiment to explore two questions: (1) what can we know about the future precipitation characteristics over Africa? and (2) does this information differ from that…

Identifying key controls on storm formation over the Lake Victoria Basin

Beth J. Woodhams, Cathryn E. Birch, John H. Marsham, Todd P. Lane, Caroline L. Bain, and Stuart Webster

The Lake Victoria region in East Africa is a hotspot for intense convective storms that are responsible for the deaths of thousands of fisherman each year. The processes responsible for the initiation, development and propagation of the storms are poorly…

Mechanisms behind early winter rainfall variability in the southwestern Cape, South Africa

Precious T. Mahlalela and Ross C. Blamey

The southwest region of South Africa is the only part of southern Africa that predominantly receives its total annual rainfall during the austral winter months (April–September). In 2015–2017, this part of the country experienced extreme dry conditions which led to…

Climate change in the Congo Basin: processes related to wetting in the December–February dry season

Amy Creese, Richard Washington, and Richard Jones

The Congo Basin is one of three key areas of tropical convection and contains the planet’s second largest rainforest. Understanding how global warming might change its climate is crucial, particularly during the dry seasons, when rainfall amounts currently bring the…

The Story of Water in Windhoek: A Narrative Approach to Interpreting a Transdisciplinary Process

Dianne Scott, Kornelia N. Iipinge, John K. E. Mfune, Davison Muchadenyika, Olavi V. Makuti, and Gina Ziervogel

The aim of the paper is to present a story about the 2015 to early 2017 Windhoek drought in the context of climate change while using the narrative approach. The story that is presented here is derived from the engagement…