PUBLICATIONS

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Effects of explicit convection on future projections of mesoscale circulations, rainfall and rainfall extremes over Eastern Africa

Declan L. Finney, John H. Marsham, David P. Rowell, Elizabeth J. Kendon, Simon O. Tucker, Rachel A. Stratton & Lawrence S. Jackson

Eastern Africa’s fast-growing population is vulnerable to changing rainfall and extremes. Using the first pan-African climate change simulations that explicitly model the rainfall-generating convection, we investigate both the climate change response of key mesoscale drivers of Eastern African rainfall, such…

What drives the intensification of mesoscale convective systems over the West African Sahel under Climate Change?

R.G.J. Fitzpatrick, J.H. Marsham, D.P. Rowell, F.M. Guichard, C.M. Taylor, K.H. Cook, E.K. Vizy, L.S. Jackson, D. Finney, J. Crook, R. Stratton & S. Tucker

Extreme rainfall is expected to increase under climate change carrying potential socio-economic risks. However, the magnitude of increase is uncertain. Over recent decades, extreme storms over the West African Sahel have increased in frequency with increased vertical wind shear shown…

Recent Trends in the Daily Rainfall Regime in Southern West Africa

Francis Nkrumah, Théo Vischel, Geremy Panthou, Nana Ama Browne Klutse, David C. Adukpo & Arona Diedhiou

Extreme climate events, either being linked to dry spells or extreme precipitation, are of major concern in Africa, a region in which the economy and population are highly vulnerable to climate hazards. However, recent trends in climate events are not…

Lake Malawi’s threshold behaviour: A stakeholder-informed model to simulate sensitivity to climate change

Ajay G.Bhave, Lauren Bulcock, Suraje Dessai, Declan Conway, Graham Jewitt, Andrew J. Dougill, Seshagiri R. Kolusu & David Mkwambisi

Over 90% of Malawi’s electricity generation and irrigation depend on Lake Malawi outflows into the Shire River. Recent lake level declines have raised concerns over future climate change impacts, including the risk of no outflows if the Lake Malawi Outflow…

Towards resilient African cities: Shared challenges and opportunities towards the retention and maintenance of ecological infrastructure

Patrick O’Farrell, Pippin Anderson, Christina Culwick, Paul Currie, Jessica Kavonic, Alice McClure, Gertrude Ngenda, Eoin Sinnott, Nadia Sitas, Carla-Leanne Washbourne, Michelle Audouin, Ryan Blanchard, Benis Egoh, Julie Goodness, Ilse Kotzee, Tom Sanya, William Stafford & Gien Wong

The retention and maintenance of ecological infrastructure is recognized as an important element of sustainable, healthy cities. We explore the shared challenges and opportunities linked to ensuring that ecological infrastructure is incorporated into the existing and emerging African cities that…

Learning from climate change perceptions in southern African cities

Anna Steynor, Maximillian Leighton, Jessica Kavonic, Waarith Abrahams, Lapologang Magole, Suzgo Kaunda & Chipo Plaxedes Mubaya

Scholarly understanding of an individual’s climate change risk perception in the African context, is limited, including amongst those who have an influence on policy making. This discussion paper goes some way towards filling this gap in understanding by providing preliminary…

City to city learning and knowledge exchange for climate resilience in southern Africa

Mzime R. Ndebele-Murisa; Chipo P. Mubaya; Lulu Pretorius; Rudo Mamombe; Kornelia Iipinge; Wilma Nchito; John K. Mfune; Gilbert Siame; Brenda Mwalukanga

Southern African cities face several challenges including management of rapid urbanization, rising populations, expanding informal settlements; adequate water and other service provision, and a host of governance challenges. Climate change and variability add a compounding effect to this complex, multi…

African Easterly Jet South: control, maintenance mechanisms and link with Southern subtropical waves

Giresse Kuete, Wilfried Pokam Mba & Richard Washington

The African Easterly Jet South (AEJ-S) is an important feature of the central African mid tropospheric circulation and has been identified as a key contributor to convection over the region. This study uses 21-year (1983–2003) Reanalysis data sets of ERA-Interim,…

A classification of synoptic weather patterns linked to extreme rainfall over the Limpopo River Basin in southern Africa

Ramontsheng S. Rapolaki, Ross C. Blamey, Juliet C. Hermes, Chris J. C. Reason

In the last few decades, the Limpopo River Basin (LRB) has experienced a number of extreme rainfall events which were responsible for considerable socio-economic and environmental impacts. Most of the population here is poor and dependent on rain-fed agriculture. In…

The Cape Town “Day Zero” drought and Hadley cell expansion

Natalie J. Burls, Ross C. Blamey, Benjamin A. Cash, Erik T. Swenson, Abdullah al Fahad, Mary-Jane M. Bopape, David M. Straus & Chris J. C. Reason

In early 2018, Cape Town (population ~3.7 million) was at risk of being one of the first major metropolitan areas in the world to run out of water. This was due to a severe multi-year drought that led to the…