PUBLICATIONS

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How can we effectively build capacity to adapt to climate change? Insights from Malawi

Diana Chanika Mataya, Katharine Vincent, Andrew Dougill

Despite significant investments in capacity building across sub-Saharan Africa, to date no rigorous assessment has been undertaken to interrogate the extent these efforts have effectively translated into planning and implementing climate change responses. Through qualitative data obtained from interviews with…

Tropical Lows in Southern Africa: Tracks, Rainfall Contributions, and the Role of ENSO

Emma Howard, Richard Washington, Kevin I. Hodges

Tropical lows are storms that are a bit like very weak tropical cyclones. They occur in summer in tropical regions. This paper tracks individual tropical lows across southern Africa in weather records from the last 39 years. We then look at…

Larger Future Intensification of Rainfall in the West African Sahel in a Convection‐Permitting Model

S. Berthou, E. J. Kendon, D. P. Rowell, M. J. Roberts, S. Tucker, R. A. Stratton

Monsoon rainfall in West Africa mostly comes from mesoscale convective systems, which are not well represented by standard convection‐parameterized regional climate models (RCMs). We use a 4.5 km resolution convection‐permitting RCM (CP4A) which has a good representation of these processes in…

Sahelian Precipitation Change Induced by SST Increase: The Contrasting Roles of Regional and Larger‐Scale Drivers

Ross D. Dixon, Philippe Peyrillé Françoise Guichard

Representing the West African Monsoon is a major challenge in climate modeling because of complex mechanisms of interaction across scales. We study the monsoon precipitation response to a 4K increase in sea surface temperatures using an idealized meridional‐vertical (2D) model,…

The effect of westerlies on East African rainfall and the associated role of tropical cyclones and the Madden‐Julian Oscillation

Declan L. Finney, John H. Marsham Dean P. Walker Cathryn E. Birch Beth J. Woodhams Lawrence S. Jackson Sam Hardy

Variability of rainfall in East Africa has major impacts on lives and livelihoods. From floods to droughts, this variability is important on short daily timescales to longer decadal timescales, as is apparent from the devastating effects of droughts in East…

The impact of RCM formulation and resolution on simulated precipitation in Africa

Minchao Wu, Grigory Nikulin, Erik Kjellström, Danijel Belušić, Colin Jones, and David Lindstedt

We investigate the impact of model formulation and horizontal resolution on the ability of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to simulate precipitation in Africa. Two RCMs – SMHI-RCA4 and HCLIM38-ALADIN are utilized for downscaling the ERA-Interim reanalysis over Africa at four…

Regional differences in the response of rainfall to convectively coupled Kelvin waves over tropical Africa

Lawrence S. Jackson, Richard J. Keane, Declan L. Finney, John H. Marsham, Douglas J. Parker, Catherine A. Senior, and Rachel A. Stratton

The representation of convection remains one of the most important sources of bias in global models, and evaluation methods are needed that show that models provide the correct mean state and variability, both for the correct reasons. Here we develop…

Deep Convection over Africa: annual cycle, ENSO, and trends in the hotspots

Neil Hart, Richard Washington, Ross Maidment

Africa is one of the three key regions of deep convection in the global tropics. There is a wealth of information on the intensity, variability and change of convection and associated rainfall in regions across the continent but almost all…

Insurance as a catalyst for using climate risk information for government planning and decision-making: A framework for analysing drivers and barriers, tested against evidence emerging from Sub-Saharan Africa

Swenja Surminski, Jon Barnes, Katharine Vincent

This paper investigates the potential catalyst role of insurance in adaptation to climate change. The authors explore how climate risk information emanating from insurance processes can support a move towards anticipatory climate risk management, which includes loss prevention and adaptation…

The Influence of Remote Aerosol Forcing from Industrialized Economies on the Future Evolution of East and West African Rainfall

Claire Scannell, Ben B. B. Booth, Nick J. Dunstone, David P. Rowell, Dan J. Bernie, Matthew Kasoar, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Laura J. Wilcox, Juan C. Acosta Navarro, Øyvind Seland, and David J. Paynter

Past changes in global industrial aerosol emissions have played a significant role in historical shifts in African rainfall, and yet assessment of the impact on African rainfall of near-term (10–40 yr) potential aerosol emission pathways remains largely unexplored. While existing…