PUBLICATIONS

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‘Eastern African Paradox’ rainfall decline due to shorter not less intense Long Rains

Caroline M. Wainwright, John H. Marsham, Richard J. Keane, David P. Rowell, Declan L. Finney, Emily Black, and Richard P. Allan

An observed decline in the Eastern African Long Rains from the 1980s to late 2000s appears contrary to the projected increase under future climate change. This “Eastern African climate paradox” confounds use of climate projections for adaptation planning across Eastern…

Scientific Understanding of East African climate change from the HyCRISTAL project

Declan Finney, John Marsham, Dave Rowell et al.

Integrating Hydro-Climate Science into Policy Decisions for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure and Livelihoods in East Africa (HyCRISTAL) is a Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) project funded to deliver new understanding of East African climate change and its impacts, and to demonstrate use…

Implications of improved representation of convection for the East Africa water budget using a convection permitting model

Declan L. Finney, John H. Marsham, Lawrence S. Jackson, Elizabeth J. Kendon, David P. Rowell, Penelope M. Boorman, Richard J. Keane, Rachel A. Stratton and Catherine A. Senior

The precipitation and diabatic heating resulting from moist convection make it a key component of the atmospheric water budget in the tropics. With convective parametrisation being a known source of uncertainty in global models, convection-permitting (CP) models are increasingly being…

Dry-lines in Southern Africa: Rediscovering the Congo Air Boundary

Emma Howard and Richard Washington

Projected rainfall decline in southern Africa is likely to be highly sensitive to subtleties in the local atmospheric circulation. In an effort to understand the regional circulation complexities, a novel algorithm is developed to identify the Congo Air Boundary (CAB)…

Evidence of crop production losses in West Africa due to historical global warming in two crop models

Benjamin Sultan, Dimitri Defrance and Toshichika Iizumi

Achieving food security goals in West Africa will depend on the capacity of the agricultural sector to feed the rapidly growing population and to moderate the adverse impacts of climate change. Indeed, a number of studies anticipate a reduction of…

Guide: Approaches to communicating climatic uncertainties with decision-makers

Jordan Harold; Kenny R. Coventry; Emma Visman; Ismahan Soukeyna Diop; Jessica Kavonic; Irene Lorenzoni; Chris Jack; Tanya Warnaars

This guide highlights two approaches used by researchers to communicate climate projections, and associated uncertainties, in west and southern African contexts. It provides descriptions of these approaches, guidance on how best to incorporate them into wider stakeholder engagement processes and contexts, and the constraints and opportunities associated with each approach. The…

Press release: Met Office leads ground-breaking research collaboration on modelling African climate, showing enhanced future changes in wet and dry extremes

Jean-Pierre Roux, Zablone Owiti, Beth Mackay, Elizabeth Kendon, Cath Senior, Dave Rowell, John Marsham, Rachel James, Wilfried Pokam

A 4-year investment into one of the most ambitious research collaborations to date that focuses on African climate has delivered far-reaching results to advance international climate science. The international collaboration, led by the Met Office, the UK’s national meteorological service, has developed the first…

Future changes and uncertainty in decision-relevant measures of East African climate

F. Jorge Bornemann, David P. Rowell, Barbara Evans, Dan J. Lapworth, Kamazima Lwiza, David M.J. Macdonald, John H. Marsham, Kindie Tesfaye, Matthew J. Ascott, and Celia Way

The need for the development of adaptation strategies for climate change in Africa is becoming critical. For example, infrastructure with a long lifespan now needs to be designed or adapted to account for a future climate that will be different…

What can we know about future precipitation in Africa? Robustness, significance and added value of projections from a large ensemble of regional climate models

Alessandro Dosio, Richard G. Jones, Christopher Jack, Christopher Lennard, Grigory Nikulin, and Bruce Hewitson

We employ a large ensemble of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the COordinated Regional-climate Downscaling EXperiment to explore two questions: (1) what can we know about the future precipitation characteristics over Africa? and (2) does this information differ from that…

Identifying key controls on storm formation over the Lake Victoria Basin

Beth J. Woodhams, Cathryn E. Birch, John H. Marsham, Todd P. Lane, Caroline L. Bain, and Stuart Webster

The Lake Victoria region in East Africa is a hotspot for intense convective storms that are responsible for the deaths of thousands of fisherman each year. The processes responsible for the initiation, development and propagation of the storms are poorly…