PUBLICATIONS

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Possible futures for East Africa under a changing climate: Technical appendix for HyCRISTAL’s Climate Risk Narratives

Laura Burgin, Dave P Rowell, & John. H Marsham.

Future 1: Much wetter, large increase in extreme rainfall and hotter Future 2: Increase in extreme rainfall and hotter Future 3: Much hotter and drier with more erratic rainy seasons This appendix summarises the underlying climate information and science upon…

African Easterly Jet South: control, maintenance mechanisms and link with Southern subtropical waves

Giresse Kuete, Wilfried Pokam Mba & Richard Washington

The African Easterly Jet South (AEJ-S) is an important feature of the central African mid tropospheric circulation and has been identified as a key contributor to convection over the region. This study uses 21-year (1983–2003) Reanalysis data sets of ERA-Interim,…

Respond Magazine COP 25, Madrid 2019.

Responding to Climate Change (RTCC)

FCFA research featured in an article in the Respond Magazine that was disseminated at COP 25. The article is found on pg. 32 and 33 and titled Protecting East African Tea Exports against climate change focussing on FCFA research of…

A classification of synoptic weather patterns linked to extreme rainfall over the Limpopo River Basin in southern Africa

Ramontsheng S. Rapolaki, Ross C. Blamey, Juliet C. Hermes, Chris J. C. Reason

In the last few decades, the Limpopo River Basin (LRB) has experienced a number of extreme rainfall events which were responsible for considerable socio-economic and environmental impacts. Most of the population here is poor and dependent on rain-fed agriculture. In…

The Cape Town “Day Zero” drought and Hadley cell expansion

Natalie J. Burls, Ross C. Blamey, Benjamin A. Cash, Erik T. Swenson, Abdullah al Fahad, Mary-Jane M. Bopape, David M. Straus & Chris J. C. Reason

In early 2018, Cape Town (population ~3.7 million) was at risk of being one of the first major metropolitan areas in the world to run out of water. This was due to a severe multi-year drought that led to the…

Variability in the Mozambique Channel Trough and impacts on southeast African rainfall

Rondrotiana Barimalala, Ross C. Blamey, Fabien Desbiolles, and Chris J. C. Reason

The Mozambique Channel Trough (MCT) is a cyclonic region prominent in austral summer in the central and southern Mozambique Channel. It first becomes evident in December with a peak in strength in February when the Mozambique Channel is warmest and…

Tropical Lows in Southern Africa: Tracks, Rainfall Contributions, and the Role of ENSO

Emma Howard, Richard Washington, Kevin I. Hodges

Tropical lows are storms that are a bit like very weak tropical cyclones. They occur in summer in tropical regions. This paper tracks individual tropical lows across southern Africa in weather records from the last 39 years. We then look at…

Larger Future Intensification of Rainfall in the West African Sahel in a Convection‐Permitting Model

S. Berthou, E. J. Kendon, D. P. Rowell, M. J. Roberts, S. Tucker, R. A. Stratton

Monsoon rainfall in West Africa mostly comes from mesoscale convective systems, which are not well represented by standard convection‐parameterized regional climate models (RCMs). We use a 4.5 km resolution convection‐permitting RCM (CP4A) which has a good representation of these processes in…

Sahelian Precipitation Change Induced by SST Increase: The Contrasting Roles of Regional and Larger‐Scale Drivers

Ross D. Dixon, Philippe Peyrillé Françoise Guichard

Representing the West African Monsoon is a major challenge in climate modeling because of complex mechanisms of interaction across scales. We study the monsoon precipitation response to a 4K increase in sea surface temperatures using an idealized meridional‐vertical (2D) model,…

The effect of westerlies on East African rainfall and the associated role of tropical cyclones and the Madden‐Julian Oscillation

Declan L. Finney, John H. Marsham Dean P. Walker Cathryn E. Birch Beth J. Woodhams Lawrence S. Jackson Sam Hardy

Variability of rainfall in East Africa has major impacts on lives and livelihoods. From floods to droughts, this variability is important on short daily timescales to longer decadal timescales, as is apparent from the devastating effects of droughts in East…