PUBLICATIONS

Loading...

Press release: Met Office leads ground-breaking research collaboration on modelling African climate, showing enhanced future changes in wet and dry extremes

Jean-Pierre Roux, Zablone Owiti, Beth Mackay, Elizabeth Kendon, Cath Senior, Dave Rowell, John Marsham, Rachel James, Wilfried Pokam

A 4-year investment into one of the most ambitious research collaborations to date that focuses on African climate has delivered far-reaching results to advance international climate science. The international collaboration, led by the Met Office, the UK’s national meteorological service, has developed the first…

Future changes and uncertainty in decision-relevant measures of East African climate

F. Jorge Bornemann, David P. Rowell, Barbara Evans, Dan J. Lapworth, Kamazima Lwiza, David M.J. Macdonald, John H. Marsham, Kindie Tesfaye, Matthew J. Ascott, and Celia Way

The need for the development of adaptation strategies for climate change in Africa is becoming critical. For example, infrastructure with a long lifespan now needs to be designed or adapted to account for a future climate that will be different…

What can we know about future precipitation in Africa? Robustness, significance and added value of projections from a large ensemble of regional climate models

Alessandro Dosio, Richard G. Jones, Christopher Jack, Christopher Lennard, Grigory Nikulin, and Bruce Hewitson

We employ a large ensemble of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the COordinated Regional-climate Downscaling EXperiment to explore two questions: (1) what can we know about the future precipitation characteristics over Africa? and (2) does this information differ from that…

Identifying key controls on storm formation over the Lake Victoria Basin

Beth J. Woodhams, Cathryn E. Birch, John H. Marsham, Todd P. Lane, Caroline L. Bain, and Stuart Webster

The Lake Victoria region in East Africa is a hotspot for intense convective storms that are responsible for the deaths of thousands of fisherman each year. The processes responsible for the initiation, development and propagation of the storms are poorly…

Mechanisms behind early winter rainfall variability in the southwestern Cape, South Africa

Precious T. Mahlalela and Ross C. Blamey

The southwest region of South Africa is the only part of southern Africa that predominantly receives its total annual rainfall during the austral winter months (April–September). In 2015–2017, this part of the country experienced extreme dry conditions which led to…

Climate change in the Congo Basin: processes related to wetting in the December–February dry season

Amy Creese, Richard Washington, and Richard Jones

The Congo Basin is one of three key areas of tropical convection and contains the planet’s second largest rainforest. Understanding how global warming might change its climate is crucial, particularly during the dry seasons, when rainfall amounts currently bring the…

Process‐based model evaluation and projections over southern Africa from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models

Izidine Pinto, Chris Jack, and Bruce Hewitson

Decision‐scale relevant climate information on climate change is needed to inform policy and decision making but often involves high uncertainty. To enhance confidence in interpreting regional climate projections, it is important to understand the underlying physical processes driving the change.…

Climate process chains: Examples from southern Africa

Joseph Daron, Laura Burgin, Tamara Janes, Richard G. Jones, and Christopher Jack

The climate system comprises multiple components, primarily the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere, each incorporating physical processes that interact across scales. To help understand the behaviour of this complex system, and evaluate climate model simulations, researchers typically take a reductionist approach,…

A Methodological Approach to Assess the Co-Behavior of Climate Processes over Southern Africa

Kwesi A. Quagraine, Bruce Hewitson, Christopher Jack, Izidine Pinto, and Christopher Lennard

The study develops an approach to assess co-behavior of climate processes. The regional response of precipitation and temperature patterns over southern Africa to the combined roles (co-behavior) of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), and intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ)…

Projected changes in tropical cyclones over the South West Indian Ocean under different extents of global warming

Mavhungu Muthige, Johan Malherbe, Francois A. Engelbrecht, Stefan Grab, Asmerom Beraki, Robert Maisha, and J Van der Merwe

The Paris Agreement achieved in December 2015 established that the signatory countries should pursue to hold the increase in global average temperature to below 2 °C relative to the preindustrial period and to strive to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C…