PUBLICATIONS

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Mechanisms behind early winter rainfall variability in the southwestern Cape, South Africa

Precious T. Mahlalela and Ross C. Blamey

The southwest region of South Africa is the only part of southern Africa that predominantly receives its total annual rainfall during the austral winter months (April–September). In 2015–2017, this part of the country experienced extreme dry conditions which led to…

Climate process chains: Examples from southern Africa

Joseph Daron, Laura Burgin, Tamara Janes, Richard G. Jones, and Christopher Jack

The climate system comprises multiple components, primarily the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere, each incorporating physical processes that interact across scales. To help understand the behaviour of this complex system, and evaluate climate model simulations, researchers typically take a reductionist approach,…

A Methodological Approach to Assess the Co-Behavior of Climate Processes over Southern Africa

Kwesi A. Quagraine, Bruce Hewitson, Christopher Jack, Izidine Pinto, and Christopher Lennard

The study develops an approach to assess co-behavior of climate processes. The regional response of precipitation and temperature patterns over southern Africa to the combined roles (co-behavior) of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), and intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ)…

Projected changes in tropical cyclones over the South West Indian Ocean under different extents of global warming

Mavhungu Muthige, Johan Malherbe, Francois A. Engelbrecht, Stefan Grab, Asmerom Beraki, Robert Maisha, and J Van der Merwe

The Paris Agreement achieved in December 2015 established that the signatory countries should pursue to hold the increase in global average temperature to below 2 °C relative to the preindustrial period and to strive to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C…

Rainfall intensification in tropical semi-arid regions: the Sahelian case

Gérémy Panthou, Thierry Lebel, Theo Vischel, Guillaume Quantin, Youssouph Sane, Ousmane Ndiaye, Aïda Diongue-Niang, and Marianne Diopkane

An anticipated consequence of ongoing global warming is the intensification of the rainfall regimes meaning longer dry spells and heavier precipitation when it rains, with potentially high hydrological and socio-economic impacts. The semi-arid regions of the intertropical band, such as…

Assessment of the Representation of West African Storm Lifecycles in Convection‐Permitting Simulations

Julia Crook, Cornelia Klein, Sonja Folwell, Christopher M. Taylor, Douglas J. Parker, Rachel Stratton, and Thorwald Stein

Convection‐permitting models perform better at representing the diurnal cycle and the intermittency of convective rainfall over land than parameterized‐convection models. However, most of the previous model assessments have been from an Eulerian point of view, while key impacts of the…

Trends in flood events and their relationship to extreme rainfall in an urban area of Sahelian West Africa: The case study of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

Fowe Tazen, Abdoulaye Diarra, Rodrigue F.W. Kabore, Boubacar Ibrahim, Maïmouna Bologo/Traoré, Karim Traoré, and Harouna Karambiri

Urban areas in Sahelian West Africa are highly vulnerable to extreme hydro‐meteorological events. In recent years, Burkina Faso has experienced several natural disasters with floods being the most frequent. This study investigates flood trends in Ouagadougou and their relationship to…

Ecosystem structural changes controlled by altered rainfall climatology in tropical savannas

Wenmin Zhang, Martin Brandt, Josep Penuelas, Françoise Guichard, Xiaoye Tong, Feng Tian, and Rasmus Fensholt

Tropical savannas comprise mixed woodland grassland ecosystems in which trees and grasses compete for water resources thereby maintaining the spatial structuring of this ecosystem. A global change in rainfall climatology may impact the structure of tropical savanna ecosystems by favouring…

Seasonal prediction and regional climate projections for southern Africa

Emma Archer, Francois Engelbrecht, Andreas Hänsler, Willem Landman, Mark Tadross, Jörg Helmschrot

Temperatures over southern Africa have been increasing rapidly over the last five decades, at a rate of about twice the global rate of temperature increase. Further drastic increases, in the order of 6°C by the end of the century relative…

Business experience of floods and drought-related water and electricity supply disruption in three cities in sub-Saharan Africa during the 2015/2016 El Niño

Kate Elizabeth Gannon, Declan Conway, Joanna Pardoe, Mukelabai Ndiyoi, Nnyaladzi Batisani, Eric Odada, Daniel Olago, Alfred Opere, Sinah Kgosietsile, Mubita Nyambe, Jessica Omukuti and Christian Siderius

Drought during the 2015/2016 El Niño amplified disruption to public water supply in Botswana’s capital Gaborone and contributed to unprecedented hydroelectric load shedding across Zambia. In Kenya, moderate precipitation during the El Niño brought localized floods to Nairobi and other…