PUBLICATIONS

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Nissan et al 19 - On the use and misuse of climate change projections in international development

Hannah Nissan, Lisa Goddard, Erin Coughlan de Perez, John Furlow, Walter Baethgen, Madeleine C. Thomson, Simon J. Mason

Climate resilience is increasingly prioritized by international development agencies and national governments. However, current approaches to informing communities of future climate risk are problematic. The predominant focus on end-of-century projections neglects more pressing development concerns, which relate to the management of shorter-term risks and…

Madagascar influence on the South Indian Ocean Convergence Zone, the Mozambique Channel Trough and southern African rainfall

Rondrotiana Barimalala, Fabien Desbiolles, Ross C. Blamey, and Chris Reason

We show that the topography of Madagascar is essential to adequately simulate the atmospheric circulation and rainfall over southern Africa and the neighboring southwest Indian Ocean. By conducting a set of numerical experiments, we evaluate the role of Madagascar and…

From Amazonia to southern Africa: Atmospheric moisture transport through Low Level Jets and Atmospheric Rivers

Alexandre M. Ramos, Ross C. Blamey, Iago Algarra, Raquel Nieto, Luis Gimeno, Ricardo Tomé, Chris J.C. Reason, and Ricardo M. Trigo

A Lagrangian analysis is applied to identify the main moisture source areas associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs) making landfall along the west coast of South Africa during the extended austral winter months from 1980 to 2014. The results show that…

What can climate services learn from theory and practice of co-production?

Katharine Vincent,Meaghan Daly, Claire Scannell, Bill Leathes

Co-produced climate services are increasingly recognised as a means of improving the effective generation and utilisation of climate information to inform decision-making and support adaptation to climate change, particularly in developing countries. There is a rich literature outlining the theoretical…

Embracing uncertainty without abandoning planning

Ward Rauws

The uncertainties that are part of the development trajectories of cities challenge spatial planners in designing productive interventions. This paper explores how complexity theory can support planners in dealing with these uncertainties intelligently. It presents a dynamic, time-sensitive understanding of…

Climate information needs in Southern Africa: a review

Daleen Lotter, Claire Davis, Emma Archer, Katharine Vincent, Joanna Pardoe, Mark Tadross, Willem Landman, Sabine Stuart Hill and Graham Jewitt

This review has two objectives: To review the current availability of climate information in a southern African context; 2. To assess the climate information requirements of a variety of end users in the southern African region using empirical findings from…

A pan-Africa convection-permitting regional climate simulation with the Met Office Unified Model: CP4-Africa

Stratton, R., Senior, C., Vosper, S., Folwell, S., Boutle, I., Earnshaw, P., Kendon, E., Lock, A., Malcolm, A., Manners, J., Morcrette, C., Short, C., Stirling, A., Taylor, C., Tucker, S., Webster, S. and Wilkinson, J.

A convection-permitting multiyear regional climate simulation using the Met Office Unified Model has been run for the first time on an Africa-wide domain. The model has been run as part of the Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) Improving Model Processes…

Regional climate impacts of stabilizing global warming at 1.5 K using solar geoengineering

Jones, A. C., Hawcroft, M. K., Haywood, J. M., Jones, A., Guo, X., & Moore, J. C.

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 K above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 K, in order to avert dangerous climate change. However, current greenhouse gas emissions…

Impact on short-lived climate forcers increases projected warming due to deforestation.

Scott, C., Monks, S., Spracklen, D., Arnold, S., Forster, P., Rap, A., Äijälä, M., Artaxo, P., Carslaw, K., Chipperfield, M., Ehn, M., Gilardoni, S., Heikkinen, L., Kulmala, M., Petäjä, T., Reddington, C., Rizzo, L., Swietlicki, E., Vignati, E. and Wilson, C.

The climate impact of deforestation depends on the relative strength of several biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects. In addition to affecting the exchange of carbon dioxide (CO2) and moisture with the atmosphere and surface albedo, vegetation emits biogenic volatile organic compounds…

The contrasting climate response to tropical and extratropical energy perturbations

Hawcroft, M.,Haywood, J., Collins, M., Jones, A.

The link between cross-equatorial energy transport, the double-intertropical convergence zone (DI) problem and biases in tropical and extratropical albedo and energy budgets in climate models have been investigated in multiple studies, though DI biases persist in many models. Here, a…