PUBLICATIONS

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Evaluation of Regional‐Scale Soil Moisture‐Surface Flux Dynamics in Earth System Models Based on Satellite Observations of Land Surface Temperature

Belen Gallego‐Elvira, Christopher M. Taylor, Phil P. Harris, and Darren Ghent

There is a lack of high‐quality global observations to evaluate soil drying impacts on surface fluxes in Earth system models (ESMs). Here we use a novel diagnostic based on the observed warming of the land relative to the atmosphere during…

The Impact of Indian Ocean Mean-State Biases in Climate Models on the Representation of the East African Short Rains

Linda Hirons and Andrew Turner

The role of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) in controlling interannual variability in the East African short rains, from October to December, is examined in state-of-the-art models and in detail in one particular climate model. In observations, a wet short-rainy…

Significantly increased extreme precipitation expected in Europe and North America from extratropical cyclones

Matt Hawcroft, Ella Walsh, Kevin Hodges and Giuseppe Zappa

For the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, changes in the mid-latitude storm tracks are key to understanding the impacts of climate warming, but projections of their future location in current climate models are affected by large uncertainty. Here, we show that in…

Mesoscale Circulations and Organized Convection in African Easterly Waves

Lorenzo Tomassini

Global convection-permitting model simulations and remote sensing observations are used to investigate the interaction between organized convection, both moist and dry, and the atmospheric circulation in the case of an African easterly wave (AEW). The wave disturbance is associated with…

Enhanced future changes in wet and dry extremes over Africa at convection-permitting scale

Elizabeth J. Kendon, Rachel A. Stratton, Simon Tucker, John H. Marsham, Ségolène Berthou, David P. Rowell & Catherine A. Senior

African society is particularly vulnerable to climate change. The representation of convection in climate models has so far restricted our ability to accurately simulate African weather extremes, limiting climate change predictions. Here we show results from climate change experiments with…

A pan-Africa convection-permitting regional climate simulation with the Met Office Unified Model: CP4-Africa

Stratton, R., Senior, C., Vosper, S., Folwell, S., Boutle, I., Earnshaw, P., Kendon, E., Lock, A., Malcolm, A., Manners, J., Morcrette, C., Short, C., Stirling, A., Taylor, C., Tucker, S., Webster, S. and Wilkinson, J.

A convection-permitting multiyear regional climate simulation using the Met Office Unified Model has been run for the first time on an Africa-wide domain. The model has been run as part of the Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) Improving Model Processes…

Regional climate impacts of stabilizing global warming at 1.5 K using solar geoengineering

Jones, A. C., Hawcroft, M. K., Haywood, J. M., Jones, A., Guo, X., & Moore, J. C.

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 K above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 K, in order to avert dangerous climate change. However, current greenhouse gas emissions…

Drivers of interannual variability of the East African ‘Long Rains’

M. Vellinga and S.F. Milton

The East African Long Rains season is unusual in that its year‐to‐year rainfall variability is mostly insensitive to the main modes of interannual tropical SST variability (ENSO, Indian Ocean dipole). Various alternative drivers of interannual variability have been described previously…

The contrasting climate response to tropical and extratropical energy perturbations

Hawcroft, M.,Haywood, J., Collins, M., Jones, A.

The link between cross-equatorial energy transport, the double-intertropical convergence zone (DI) problem and biases in tropical and extratropical albedo and energy budgets in climate models have been investigated in multiple studies, though DI biases persist in many models. Here, a…

The interaction between moist diabatic processes and the atmospheric circulation in African Easterly Wave propagation

Lorenzo Tomassini, Douglas J. Parker, Alison Stirling, Caroline Bain, Catherine Senior and Sean Milton

An objective tracking algorithm is used to characterize the three‐dimensional structure of African Easterly Waves (AEWs) in ERA‐Interim reanalysis and a Met Office Unified Model (UM) simulation. A special focus is dedicated to the coupling of dynamical aspects of the…