PUBLICATIONS

Loading...

Key messages from the UMFULA project

UMFULA team

UMFULA has addressed questions of climate science, climate impacts and decision-making processes for adaptation, including: How does the climate of central and southern Africa work? And how well do climate models represent the key processes responsible for climate? How might the climate…

A guide to Effective Collaboration and Learning in Consortia

Bettina Koelle, Lucia Scodanibbio, Katharine Vincent, Blane Harvey, Maarten van Aalst, Sophie Rigg, Nicola Ward, and Margot Curl

Working in the complex context of climate change adaptation and resilience, individuals and organisations are often required to work together in consortia across disciplinary, institutional, geographical, and cultural boundaries. Working in large consortia offers great opportunities for addressing complex problems.…

Dry-lines in Southern Africa: Rediscovering the Congo Air Boundary

Emma Howard and Richard Washington

Projected rainfall decline in southern Africa is likely to be highly sensitive to subtleties in the local atmospheric circulation. In an effort to understand the regional circulation complexities, a novel algorithm is developed to identify the Congo Air Boundary (CAB)…

Creating useful and usable weather and climate information - insights from Participatory Scenario Planning in Malawi

Dorothy Tembo-Nhlema, Katharine Vincent and Rebecka Henriksson Malinga

For weather and climate information to be used at the grassroots level, it needs to be effectively interpreted and communicated so that it is both useful and usable. The gap between producers and users, however, has typically not been filled.…

Press release: Water resources model shows how climate change poses risks to future water availability in Malawi

Declan Conway, Estelle Rouhaud, Beth Mackay, Ajay Bhave

The UMFULA (Uncertainty Reduction in Models for Understanding Development Applications) research group, that is part of the programme Future Climate for Africa, have been investigating how future climate change will affect water resources in Malawi. The UMFULA research team has developed a water…

Brief: Designing a process for assessing climate resilience in Tanzania’s Rufiji River basin

Declan Conway, Robel Geressu, Julien Harou, Japhet J. Kashaigili, Laetitia Pettinotti, and Christian Siderius

This brief introduces the concept of climate information and reasons for its use in major decisions about water, energy and agriculture, including new infrastructure investments. It outlines the innovative approach taken in the Rufiji River basin in Tanzania by the…

Brief: Projecting future water availability in Lake Malawi and the Shire River basin

Ajay G. Bhave, Lauren Bulcock, Suraje Dessai, Declan Conway, Graham Jewitt, Andy J. Dougill, Seshagiri Rao Kolusu and David Mkwambisi

Malawi is highly dependent on water from Lake Malawi and the Shire River basin (Figure 1). Over 90% of Malawi’s electricity depends on outflows from the lake into the Shire River which feed three existing hydropower plants – Tedzani, Nkula…

Mechanisms behind early winter rainfall variability in the southwestern Cape, South Africa

Precious T. Mahlalela and Ross C. Blamey

The southwest region of South Africa is the only part of southern Africa that predominantly receives its total annual rainfall during the austral winter months (April–September). In 2015–2017, this part of the country experienced extreme dry conditions which led to…

Climate change in the Congo Basin: processes related to wetting in the December–February dry season

Amy Creese, Richard Washington, and Richard Jones

The Congo Basin is one of three key areas of tropical convection and contains the planet’s second largest rainforest. Understanding how global warming might change its climate is crucial, particularly during the dry seasons, when rainfall amounts currently bring the…

Learning from South Africa's recent summer rainfall droughts: How might we think differently about response?

Emma R. M. Archer

The 2015/2016 and 2016/2017 summer rainfall seasons in South Africa, as well as in the Southern African Development Community region more widely, are generally agreed to be the most severe droughts on record since those of the early 1980s and…