PUBLICATIONS

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Scientific Understanding of East African climate change from the HyCRISTAL project

Declan Finney, John Marsham, Dave Rowell et al.

Integrating Hydro-Climate Science into Policy Decisions for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure and Livelihoods in East Africa (HyCRISTAL) is a Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) project funded to deliver new understanding of East African climate change and its impacts, and to demonstrate use…

Implications of improved representation of convection for the East Africa water budget using a convection permitting model

Declan L. Finney, John H. Marsham, Lawrence S. Jackson, Elizabeth J. Kendon, David P. Rowell, Penelope M. Boorman, Richard J. Keane, Rachel A. Stratton and Catherine A. Senior

The precipitation and diabatic heating resulting from moist convection make it a key component of the atmospheric water budget in the tropics. With convective parametrisation being a known source of uncertainty in global models, convection-permitting (CP) models are increasingly being…

Press release: Climate change information needed for East African decision-making: Hon James Acidri (Uganda Member of Parliament) and Bob Natifu (Uganda Deputy Commissioner for Climate Change) open the HyCRISTAL “Research into Policy” Conference in Kampala, Uganda, 21-22 May 2019.

John Marsham, Beth Mackay, Gabriela Lopez Gonzalez, Dave Rowell, Barbara Evans, David Macdonald, Ros Cornforth

“Climate Change is already affecting our society and all regions of Uganda,” said Mr. Bob Natifu (Uganda Deputy Commissioner for Climate Change). His keynote address left attendees at the final annual HyCRISTAL (Integrating Hydro-Climate Science into Policy Decisions for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure and Livelihoods…

Future changes and uncertainty in decision-relevant measures of East African climate

F. Jorge Bornemann, David P. Rowell, Barbara Evans, Dan J. Lapworth, Kamazima Lwiza, David M.J. Macdonald, John H. Marsham, Kindie Tesfaye, Matthew J. Ascott, and Celia Way

The need for the development of adaptation strategies for climate change in Africa is becoming critical. For example, infrastructure with a long lifespan now needs to be designed or adapted to account for a future climate that will be different…

Identifying key controls on storm formation over the Lake Victoria Basin

Beth J. Woodhams, Cathryn E. Birch, John H. Marsham, Todd P. Lane, Caroline L. Bain, and Stuart Webster

The Lake Victoria region in East Africa is a hotspot for intense convective storms that are responsible for the deaths of thousands of fisherman each year. The processes responsible for the initiation, development and propagation of the storms are poorly…

An Observational Constraint on CMIP5 Projections of the East African Long Rains and Southern Indian Ocean Warming

David P. Rowell

Two outlying projections of the East African Long Rains suggest the seasonal rainfall may double by the late 21st century. Previous work has linked these extremes—found in the IPSL‐CM5A model—to an exceptional March to May warming of the southern Indian…

Later Wet Seasons with More Intense Rainfall over Africa under Future Climate Change

Caroline M. Dunning, Emily Black and Richard P. Allan

Changes in the seasonality of precipitation over Africa have high potential for detrimental socioeconomic impacts due to high societal dependence upon seasonal rainfall. Here, for the first time we conduct a continental-scale analysis of changes in wet season characteristics under…

Evaluation of rainfall simulations over Uganda in CORDEX regional climate models

Jesse Kisembe, Alice Favre, Alessandro Dosio, Christopher Lennard, Geoffrey Sabiiti and Alex Nimusiima

The study evaluates the ability of ten regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate the present-day rainfall over Uganda within the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) for the period 1990–2008. The models’ ability to reproduce the space-time variability of annual, seasonal,…

What Is the Added Value of a Convection-Permitting Model for Forecasting Extreme Rainfall over Tropical East Africa?

Beth J. Woodhams, Cathryn E. Birch, John H. Marsham, Caroline L. Bain, Nigel M. Roberts, and Douglas F. A. Boyd

Forecasting convective rainfall in the tropics is a major challenge for numerical weather prediction. The use of convection-permitting (CP) forecast models in the tropics has lagged behind the midlatitudes, despite the great potential of such models in this region. In…

Brief: Possible futures for urban East Africa under a changing climate

Laura Burgin, Met Office, UK; Grady Walker, Walker Institute, University of Reading; Celia Way, University of Leeds; Rosalind Cornforth, Walker Institute, University of Reading; Barbara Evans, University of Leeds; Dave Rowell, Met Office, UK; John Marsham, University of Leeds; Fred Semazzi, North Carolina State University; Geoffrey Sabiiti, Makerere University, ICPAC; Andrew Ainslie, University of Reading; Julio Araujo, SouthSouthNorth; Matthew Ascott, British Geological Survey; Dai Clegg, Evidence for Development; Andrew Clenaghan, Practical Action; Dan Lapworth, British Geological Survey; Kamazima Lwiza, Stony Brook University; David Macdonald, British Geological Survey; Celia Petty, Evidence for Development; John Seaman, Evidence for Development; Caroline Wainwright, University of Reading

Three possibilities for what the climate might be like in 2050 and the resulting impacts felt by urban areas of East Africa are described here. Three climate futures have been selected to demonstrate a range of plausible futures but they…