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FCFA Research Consortium Summary - HyCRISTAL

Matthew Ascot (British Geological Survey); Roy Bouwer (SouthSouthNorth); Rosalind Cornforth (Walker Institute) Luleka Dlamini (SouthSouthNorth); Barbara Evans (University of Leeds); Dan Lapworth (British Geological Survey); David MacDonald (British Geological Survey)John Marsham (University of Leeds); Neha Mittal (University of Leeds); Celia Petty (Evidence for Action); Dave Rowell (Met Office); Grady Walker (University of Reading) Celia Way (University of Leeds)

This brief provides a summary of the HyCRISTAL research consortium which carried out research on climate change in east Africa as part of the FCFA programme.  HyCRISTAL aimed to develop new understanding of East African climate change and variability and…

Summary of FCFA work in Uganda

Roy Bouwer (SouthSouthNorth); Rosalind Cornforth (Walker Institute, UK); Daniel Lapworth (British Geological Survey); David Mcdonald (British Geological Survey); John Marsham (University of Leeds and National Centre for Atmospheric Science); Neha Mittal (University of Leeds); Celia Petty (Evidence for Development); Grady Walker (University of Reading); Celia Way (University of Leeds)h (British Geological Survey); David Mcdonald (British Geological Survey); John Marsham (University of Leeds and National Centre for Atmospheric Science); Neha Mittal (University of Leeds); Celia Petty (Evidence for Development); Grady Walker (University of Reading); Celia Way (University of Leeds)

This brief provides a summary of the work FCFA carried out in Uganda. Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) aims to generate fundamentally new climate science focused on Africa, and to ensure that this science has an impact on human development…

Summary of FCFA work in Kenya

Roy Bouwer (SouthSouthNorth); Rosalind Cornforth (Walker Institute, UK); Daniel Lapworth (British Geological Survey); David Mcdonald (British Geological Survey); John Marsham (University of Leeds and National Centre for Atmospheric Science); Neha Mittal (University of Leeds); Celia Petty (Evidence for Development); Grady Walker (University of Reading); Celia Way (University of Leeds)

This brief provides a summary of the work FCFA carried out in Kenya. Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) aims to generate fundamentally new climate science focused on Africa, and to ensure that this science has an impact on human development…

Changes in global groundwater organic carbon driven by climate change and urbanization

Liza K. McDonough, Isaac R. Santos, Martin S. Andersen, Denis M. O’Carroll, Helen Rutlidge, Karina Meredith, Phetdala Oudone, John Bridgeman, Daren C. Gooddy, James P. R. Sorensen, Dan J. Lapworth, Alan M. MacDonald, Jade Ward & Andy Baker

Climate change and urbanization can increase pressures on groundwater resources, but little is known about how groundwater quality will change. Here, we use a global synthesis (n = 9,404) to reveal the drivers of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), which is an important…

Effects of explicit convection on future projections of mesoscale circulations, rainfall and rainfall extremes over Eastern Africa

Declan L. Finney, John H. Marsham, David P. Rowell, Elizabeth J. Kendon, Simon O. Tucker, Rachel A. Stratton & Lawrence S. Jackson

Eastern Africa’s fast-growing population is vulnerable to changing rainfall and extremes. Using the first pan-African climate change simulations that explicitly model the rainfall-generating convection, we investigate both the climate change response of key mesoscale drivers of Eastern African rainfall, such…

Possible futures for East Africa under a changing climate: Technical appendix for HyCRISTAL’s Climate Risk Narratives

Laura Burgin, Dave P Rowell, & John. H Marsham.

Future 1: Much wetter, large increase in extreme rainfall and hotter Future 2: Increase in extreme rainfall and hotter Future 3: Much hotter and drier with more erratic rainy seasons This appendix summarises the underlying climate information and science upon…

Respond Magazine COP 25, Madrid 2019.

Responding to Climate Change (RTCC)

FCFA research featured in an article in the Respond Magazine that was disseminated at COP 25. The article is found on pg. 32 and 33 and titled Protecting East African Tea Exports against climate change focussing on FCFA research of…

The effect of westerlies on East African rainfall and the associated role of tropical cyclones and the Madden‐Julian Oscillation

Declan L. Finney, John H. Marsham Dean P. Walker Cathryn E. Birch Beth J. Woodhams Lawrence S. Jackson Sam Hardy

Variability of rainfall in East Africa has major impacts on lives and livelihoods. From floods to droughts, this variability is important on short daily timescales to longer decadal timescales, as is apparent from the devastating effects of droughts in East…

The Influence of Remote Aerosol Forcing from Industrialized Economies on the Future Evolution of East and West African Rainfall

Claire Scannell, Ben B. B. Booth, Nick J. Dunstone, David P. Rowell, Dan J. Bernie, Matthew Kasoar, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Laura J. Wilcox, Juan C. Acosta Navarro, Øyvind Seland, and David J. Paynter

Past changes in global industrial aerosol emissions have played a significant role in historical shifts in African rainfall, and yet assessment of the impact on African rainfall of near-term (10–40 yr) potential aerosol emission pathways remains largely unexplored. While existing…

‘Eastern African Paradox’ rainfall decline due to shorter not less intense Long Rains

Caroline M. Wainwright, John H. Marsham, Richard J. Keane, David P. Rowell, Declan L. Finney, Emily Black, and Richard P. Allan

An observed decline in the Eastern African Long Rains from the 1980s to late 2000s appears contrary to the projected increase under future climate change. This “Eastern African climate paradox” confounds use of climate projections for adaptation planning across Eastern…