PUBLICATIONS

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Regional differences in the response of rainfall to convectively coupled Kelvin waves over tropical Africa

Lawrence S. Jackson, Richard J. Keane, Declan L. Finney, John H. Marsham, Douglas J. Parker, Catherine A. Senior, and Rachel A. Stratton

The representation of convection remains one of the most important sources of bias in global models, and evaluation methods are needed that show that models provide the correct mean state and variability, both for the correct reasons. Here we develop…

Press release: Met Office leads ground-breaking research collaboration on modelling African climate, showing enhanced future changes in wet and dry extremes

Jean-Pierre Roux, Zablone Owiti, Beth Mackay, Elizabeth Kendon, Cath Senior, Dave Rowell, John Marsham, Rachel James, Wilfried Pokam

A 4-year investment into one of the most ambitious research collaborations to date that focuses on African climate has delivered far-reaching results to advance international climate science. The international collaboration, led by the Met Office, the UK’s national meteorological service, has developed the first…

Evaluation of Regional‐Scale Soil Moisture‐Surface Flux Dynamics in Earth System Models Based on Satellite Observations of Land Surface Temperature

Belen Gallego‐Elvira, Christopher M. Taylor, Phil P. Harris, and Darren Ghent

There is a lack of high‐quality global observations to evaluate soil drying impacts on surface fluxes in Earth system models (ESMs). Here we use a novel diagnostic based on the observed warming of the land relative to the atmosphere during…

The Impact of Indian Ocean Mean-State Biases in Climate Models on the Representation of the East African Short Rains

Linda Hirons and Andrew Turner

The role of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) in controlling interannual variability in the East African short rains, from October to December, is examined in state-of-the-art models and in detail in one particular climate model. In observations, a wet short-rainy…

Significantly increased extreme precipitation expected in Europe and North America from extratropical cyclones

Matt Hawcroft, Ella Walsh, Kevin Hodges and Giuseppe Zappa

For the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, changes in the mid-latitude storm tracks are key to understanding the impacts of climate warming, but projections of their future location in current climate models are affected by large uncertainty. Here, we show that in…

Mesoscale Circulations and Organized Convection in African Easterly Waves

Lorenzo Tomassini

Global convection-permitting model simulations and remote sensing observations are used to investigate the interaction between organized convection, both moist and dry, and the atmospheric circulation in the case of an African easterly wave (AEW). The wave disturbance is associated with…

Enhanced future changes in wet and dry extremes over Africa at convection-permitting scale

Elizabeth J. Kendon, Rachel A. Stratton, Simon Tucker, John H. Marsham, Ségolène Berthou, David P. Rowell & Catherine A. Senior

African society is particularly vulnerable to climate change. The representation of convection in climate models has so far restricted our ability to accurately simulate African weather extremes, limiting climate change predictions. Here we show results from climate change experiments with…

A pan-Africa convection-permitting regional climate simulation with the Met Office Unified Model: CP4-Africa

Stratton, R., Senior, C., Vosper, S., Folwell, S., Boutle, I., Earnshaw, P., Kendon, E., Lock, A., Malcolm, A., Manners, J., Morcrette, C., Short, C., Stirling, A., Taylor, C., Tucker, S., Webster, S. and Wilkinson, J.

A convection-permitting multiyear regional climate simulation using the Met Office Unified Model has been run for the first time on an Africa-wide domain. The model has been run as part of the Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) Improving Model Processes…

Regional climate impacts of stabilizing global warming at 1.5 K using solar geoengineering

Jones, A. C., Hawcroft, M. K., Haywood, J. M., Jones, A., Guo, X., & Moore, J. C.

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 K above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 K, in order to avert dangerous climate change. However, current greenhouse gas emissions…

Drivers of interannual variability of the East African ‘Long Rains’

M. Vellinga and S.F. Milton

The East African Long Rains season is unusual in that its year‐to‐year rainfall variability is mostly insensitive to the main modes of interannual tropical SST variability (ENSO, Indian Ocean dipole). Various alternative drivers of interannual variability have been described previously…