PUBLICATIONS

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A pan-Africa convection-permitting regional climate simulation with the Met Office Unified Model: CP4-Africa

Stratton, R., Senior, C., Vosper, S., Folwell, S., Boutle, I., Earnshaw, P., Kendon, E., Lock, A., Malcolm, A., Manners, J., Morcrette, C., Short, C., Stirling, A., Taylor, C., Tucker, S., Webster, S. and Wilkinson, J.

A convection-permitting multiyear regional climate simulation using the Met Office Unified Model has been run for the first time on an Africa-wide domain. The model has been run as part of the Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) Improving Model Processes…

Regional climate impacts of stabilizing global warming at 1.5 K using solar geoengineering

Jones, A. C., Hawcroft, M. K., Haywood, J. M., Jones, A., Guo, X., & Moore, J. C.

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 K above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 K, in order to avert dangerous climate change. However, current greenhouse gas emissions…

Drivers of interannual variability of the East African ‘Long Rains’

M. Vellinga and S.F. Milton

The East African Long Rains season is unusual in that its year‐to‐year rainfall variability is mostly insensitive to the main modes of interannual tropical SST variability (ENSO, Indian Ocean dipole). Various alternative drivers of interannual variability have been described previously…

The contrasting climate response to tropical and extratropical energy perturbations

Hawcroft, M.,Haywood, J., Collins, M., Jones, A.

The link between cross-equatorial energy transport, the double-intertropical convergence zone (DI) problem and biases in tropical and extratropical albedo and energy budgets in climate models have been investigated in multiple studies, though DI biases persist in many models. Here, a…

The interaction between moist diabatic processes and the atmospheric circulation in African Easterly Wave propagation

Lorenzo Tomassini, Douglas J. Parker, Alison Stirling, Caroline Bain, Catherine Senior and Sean Milton

An objective tracking algorithm is used to characterize the three‐dimensional structure of African Easterly Waves (AEWs) in ERA‐Interim reanalysis and a Met Office Unified Model (UM) simulation. A special focus is dedicated to the coupling of dynamical aspects of the…

Impacts of hemispheric solar geoengineering on tropical cyclone frequency

Jones, A., Haywood, J., Dunstone, N., Emanuel, K., Hawcroft, M., Hodges, K.

Solar geoengineering refers to a range of proposed methods for counteracting global warming by artificially reducing sunlight at Earth’s surface. The most widely known solar geoengineering proposal is stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), which has impacts analogous to those from volcanic…

IMPALA 2nd Science Meeting Report

IMPALA

The IMPALA consortium, based at the UK Met Office, aims to deliver a step change in global climate model capability with a focus on a convection-permitting model over the African continent (CP4-Africa). This report covers the second annual IMPALA science meeting held…

Simulating the characteristics of Tropical Cyclones over the South West Indian Ocean using a Stretched-Grid Global Climate Model

Molulaqhooa L. Maoyi, Babatunde J. Abiodun, Joseph M. Prusa, Jennifer J. Veitch

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most devastating natural phenomena. This study examines the capability of a global climate model with grid stretching (CAM-EULAG, hereafter CEU) in simulating the characteristics of TCs over the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO).…

Potential applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions

Christopher J. White, Henrik Carlsen, Andrew W. Robertson, Richard J.T. Klein, Jeffrey K. Lazo, Arun Kumar, Frederic Vitart, Erin Coughlan de Perez, Andrea J. Ray, Virginia Murray, Sukaina Bharwani, Dave MacLeod, Rachel James, Lora Fleming, Andrew P. Morse, Bernd Eggen, Richard Graham, Erik Kjellström, Emily Becker, Kathleen V. Pegion, Neil J. Holbrook, Darryn McEvoy, Michael Depledge, Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Timothy J. Brown, Roger Street, Lindsey Jones, Tomas A. Remenyi, Indi Hodgson-Johnston, Carlo Buontempo, Rob Lamb, Holger Meinke, Berit Arheimers and Stephen E. Zebiakd

While seasonal outlooks have been operational for many years, until recently the extended‐range timescale referred to as subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) has received little attention. S2S prediction fills the gap between short‐range weather prediction and long‐range seasonal outlooks. Decisions in a range…

The onset and cessation of seasonal rainfall over Africa

Caroline M. Dunning, Emily C. L. Black and Richard P. Allan

Variation in the seasonal cycle of African rainfall is of key importance for agriculture. Here an objective method of determining the timing of onset and cessation is, for the first time, extended to the whole of Africa. The method is…