PUBLICATIONS

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Tropical Lows in Southern Africa: Tracks, Rainfall Contributions, and the Role of ENSO

Emma Howard, Richard Washington, Kevin I. Hodges

Tropical lows are storms that are a bit like very weak tropical cyclones. They occur in summer in tropical regions. This paper tracks individual tropical lows across southern Africa in weather records from the last 39 years. We then look at…

Deep Convection over Africa: annual cycle, ENSO, and trends in the hotspots

Neil Hart, Richard Washington, Ross Maidment

Africa is one of the three key regions of deep convection in the global tropics. There is a wealth of information on the intensity, variability and change of convection and associated rainfall in regions across the continent but almost all…

Dry-lines in Southern Africa: Rediscovering the Congo Air Boundary

Emma Howard and Richard Washington

Projected rainfall decline in southern Africa is likely to be highly sensitive to subtleties in the local atmospheric circulation. In an effort to understand the regional circulation complexities, a novel algorithm is developed to identify the Congo Air Boundary (CAB)…

Mechanisms behind early winter rainfall variability in the southwestern Cape, South Africa

Precious T. Mahlalela and Ross C. Blamey

The southwest region of South Africa is the only part of southern Africa that predominantly receives its total annual rainfall during the austral winter months (April–September). In 2015–2017, this part of the country experienced extreme dry conditions which led to…

Climate change in the Congo Basin: processes related to wetting in the December–February dry season

Amy Creese, Richard Washington, and Richard Jones

The Congo Basin is one of three key areas of tropical convection and contains the planet’s second largest rainforest. Understanding how global warming might change its climate is crucial, particularly during the dry seasons, when rainfall amounts currently bring the…

Climate change in the Congo Basin: processes related to wetting in the December–February dry season

Amy Creese, Richard Washington, and Richard Jones

The Congo Basin is one of three key areas of tropical convection and contains the planet’s second largest rainforest. Understanding how global warming might change its climate is crucial, particularly during the dry seasons, when rainfall amounts currently bring the…

Controls on the Diversity in Climate Model Projections of Early Summer Drying over Southern Africa

Callum Munday and Richard Washington

Ninety-five percent of climate models contributing to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) project early summer [October–December (OND)] rainfall declines over subtropical southern Africa by the end of the century, under all emissions forcing pathways. The intermodel…

The Plausibility of September–November Congo Basin Rainfall Change in Coupled Climate Models

Amy Creese, Richard Washington, and Callum Munday

As one of three global hot spots of tropical convection, potential future changes to the Congo Basin climate system will have regional and tropics ‐wide implications. However, the latest generation of climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 disagree on the sign…

The ‘Day Zero’ Cape Town drought and the poleward migration of moisture corridors

Pedro M. Sousa , Ross C. Blamey , Chris J.C. Reason, Alexandre M. Ramos, and Ricardo M. Trigo

Since 2015 the greater Cape Town area (∼3.7 million people) has been experiencing the worst drought of the last century. The combined effect of this prolonged dry period with an ever-growing demand for water culminated in the widely publicized ‘Day…

The El Niño event of 2015–2016: climate anomalies and their impact on groundwater resources in East and Southern Africa

Seshagiri Rao Kolusu, Mohammad Shamsudduha, Martin C. Todd, Richard G. Taylor, David Seddon, Japhet J. Kashaigili, Girma Y. Ebrahim, Mark O. Cuthbert, James P. R. Sorensen, Karen G. Villholth, Alan M. MacDonald, and Dave A. MacLeod

The impact of climate variability on groundwater storage has received limited attention despite widespread dependence on groundwater as a resource for drinking water, agriculture and industry. Here, we assess the climate anomalies that occurred over Southern Africa (SA) and East…