PUBLICATIONS

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Brief: Designing a process for assessing climate resilience in Tanzania’s Rufiji River basin

Declan Conway, Robel Geressu, Julien Harou, Japhet J. Kashaigili, Laetitia Pettinotti, and Christian Siderius

This brief introduces the concept of climate information and reasons for its use in major decisions about water, energy and agriculture, including new infrastructure investments. It outlines the innovative approach taken in the Rufiji River basin in Tanzania by the…

Brief: Projecting future water availability in Lake Malawi and the Shire River basin

Ajay G. Bhave, Lauren Bulcock, Suraje Dessai, Declan Conway, Graham Jewitt, Andy J. Dougill, Seshagiri Rao Kolusu and David Mkwambisi

Malawi is highly dependent on water from Lake Malawi and the Shire River basin (Figure 1). Over 90% of Malawi’s electricity depends on outflows from the lake into the Shire River which feed three existing hydropower plants – Tedzani, Nkula…

Mechanisms behind early winter rainfall variability in the southwestern Cape, South Africa

Precious T. Mahlalela and Ross C. Blamey

The southwest region of South Africa is the only part of southern Africa that predominantly receives its total annual rainfall during the austral winter months (April–September). In 2015–2017, this part of the country experienced extreme dry conditions which led to…

Seasonal prediction and regional climate projections for southern Africa

Emma Archer, Francois Engelbrecht, Andreas Hänsler, Willem Landman, Mark Tadross, Jörg Helmschrot

Temperatures over southern Africa have been increasing rapidly over the last five decades, at a rate of about twice the global rate of temperature increase. Further drastic increases, in the order of 6°C by the end of the century relative…

Business experience of floods and drought-related water and electricity supply disruption in three cities in sub-Saharan Africa during the 2015/2016 El Niño

Kate Elizabeth Gannon, Declan Conway, Joanna Pardoe, Mukelabai Ndiyoi, Nnyaladzi Batisani, Eric Odada, Daniel Olago, Alfred Opere, Sinah Kgosietsile, Mubita Nyambe, Jessica Omukuti and Christian Siderius

Drought during the 2015/2016 El Niño amplified disruption to public water supply in Botswana’s capital Gaborone and contributed to unprecedented hydroelectric load shedding across Zambia. In Kenya, moderate precipitation during the El Niño brought localized floods to Nairobi and other…

On the use and misuse of climate change projections in international development

Hannah Nissan, Lisa Goddard, Erin Coughlan de Perez, John Furlow, Walter Baethgen, Madeleine C. Thomson, Simon J. Mason

Climate resilience is increasingly prioritized by international development agencies and national governments. However, current approaches to informing communities of future climate risk are problematic. The predominant focus on end-of-century projections neglects more pressing development concerns, which relate to the management of shorter-term risks and…

Madagascar influence on the South Indian Ocean Convergence Zone, the Mozambique Channel Trough and southern African rainfall

Rondrotiana Barimalala, Fabien Desbiolles, Ross C. Blamey, and Chris Reason

We show that the topography of Madagascar is essential to adequately simulate the atmospheric circulation and rainfall over southern Africa and the neighboring southwest Indian Ocean. By conducting a set of numerical experiments, we evaluate the role of Madagascar and…

From Amazonia to southern Africa: Atmospheric moisture transport through Low Level Jets and Atmospheric Rivers

Alexandre M. Ramos, Ross C. Blamey, Iago Algarra, Raquel Nieto, Luis Gimeno, Ricardo Tomé, Chris J.C. Reason, and Ricardo M. Trigo

A Lagrangian analysis is applied to identify the main moisture source areas associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs) making landfall along the west coast of South Africa during the extended austral winter months from 1980 to 2014. The results show that…

What can climate services learn from theory and practice of co-production?

Katharine Vincent,Meaghan Daly, Claire Scannell, Bill Leathes

Co-produced climate services are increasingly recognised as a means of improving the effective generation and utilisation of climate information to inform decision-making and support adaptation to climate change, particularly in developing countries. There is a rich literature outlining the theoretical…

Climate information needs in Southern Africa: a review

Daleen Lotter, Claire Davis, Emma Archer, Katharine Vincent, Joanna Pardoe, Mark Tadross, Willem Landman, Sabine Stuart Hill and Graham Jewitt

This review has two objectives: To review the current availability of climate information in a southern African context; 2. To assess the climate information requirements of a variety of end users in the southern African region using empirical findings from…