PUBLICATIONS

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A classification of synoptic weather patterns linked to extreme rainfall over the Limpopo River Basin in southern Africa

Ramontsheng S. Rapolaki, Ross C. Blamey, Juliet C. Hermes, Chris J. C. Reason

In the last few decades, the Limpopo River Basin (LRB) has experienced a number of extreme rainfall events which were responsible for considerable socio-economic and environmental impacts. Most of the population here is poor and dependent on rain-fed agriculture. In…

The Cape Town “Day Zero” drought and Hadley cell expansion

Natalie J. Burls, Ross C. Blamey, Benjamin A. Cash, Erik T. Swenson, Abdullah al Fahad, Mary-Jane M. Bopape, David M. Straus & Chris J. C. Reason

In early 2018, Cape Town (population ~3.7 million) was at risk of being one of the first major metropolitan areas in the world to run out of water. This was due to a severe multi-year drought that led to the…

Variability in the Mozambique Channel Trough and impacts on southeast African rainfall

Rondrotiana Barimalala, Ross C. Blamey, Fabien Desbiolles, and Chris J. C. Reason

The Mozambique Channel Trough (MCT) is a cyclonic region prominent in austral summer in the central and southern Mozambique Channel. It first becomes evident in December with a peak in strength in February when the Mozambique Channel is warmest and…

How can we effectively build capacity to adapt to climate change? Insights from Malawi

Diana Chanika Mataya, Katharine Vincent, Andrew Dougill

Despite significant investments in capacity building across sub-Saharan Africa, to date no rigorous assessment has been undertaken to interrogate the extent these efforts have effectively translated into planning and implementing climate change responses. Through qualitative data obtained from interviews with…

Tropical Lows in Southern Africa: Tracks, Rainfall Contributions, and the Role of ENSO

Emma Howard, Richard Washington, Kevin I. Hodges

Tropical lows are storms that are a bit like very weak tropical cyclones. They occur in summer in tropical regions. This paper tracks individual tropical lows across southern Africa in weather records from the last 39 years. We then look at…

Deep Convection over Africa: annual cycle, ENSO, and trends in the hotspots

Neil Hart, Richard Washington, Ross Maidment

Africa is one of the three key regions of deep convection in the global tropics. There is a wealth of information on the intensity, variability and change of convection and associated rainfall in regions across the continent but almost all…

Insurance as a catalyst for using climate risk information for government planning and decision-making: A framework for analysing drivers and barriers, tested against evidence emerging from Sub-Saharan Africa

Swenja Surminski, Jon Barnes, Katharine Vincent

This paper investigates the potential catalyst role of insurance in adaptation to climate change. The authors explore how climate risk information emanating from insurance processes can support a move towards anticipatory climate risk management, which includes loss prevention and adaptation…

Key messages from the UMFULA project

UMFULA team

UMFULA has addressed questions of climate science, climate impacts and decision-making processes for adaptation, including: How does the climate of central and southern Africa work? And how well do climate models represent the key processes responsible for climate? How might the climate…

A guide to Effective Collaboration and Learning in Consortia

Bettina Koelle, Lucia Scodanibbio, Katharine Vincent, Blane Harvey, Maarten van Aalst, Sophie Rigg, Nicola Ward, and Margot Curl

Working in the complex context of climate change adaptation and resilience, individuals and organisations are often required to work together in consortia across disciplinary, institutional, geographical, and cultural boundaries. Working in large consortia offers great opportunities for addressing complex problems.…

Dry-lines in Southern Africa: Rediscovering the Congo Air Boundary

Emma Howard and Richard Washington

Projected rainfall decline in southern Africa is likely to be highly sensitive to subtleties in the local atmospheric circulation. In an effort to understand the regional circulation complexities, a novel algorithm is developed to identify the Congo Air Boundary (CAB)…