PUBLICATIONS

Loading...

Identifying key controls on storm formation over the Lake Victoria Basin

Beth J. Woodhams, Cathryn E. Birch, John H. Marsham, Todd P. Lane, Caroline L. Bain, and Stuart Webster

The Lake Victoria region in East Africa is a hotspot for intense convective storms that are responsible for the deaths of thousands of fisherman each year. The processes responsible for the initiation, development and propagation of the storms are poorly…

An Observational Constraint on CMIP5 Projections of the East African Long Rains and Southern Indian Ocean Warming

David P. Rowell

Two outlying projections of the East African Long Rains suggest the seasonal rainfall may double by the late 21st century. Previous work has linked these extremes—found in the IPSL‐CM5A model—to an exceptional March to May warming of the southern Indian…

Later Wet Seasons with More Intense Rainfall over Africa under Future Climate Change

Caroline M. Dunning, Emily Black and Richard P. Allan

Changes in the seasonality of precipitation over Africa have high potential for detrimental socioeconomic impacts due to high societal dependence upon seasonal rainfall. Here, for the first time we conduct a continental-scale analysis of changes in wet season characteristics under…

Evaluation of rainfall simulations over Uganda in CORDEX regional climate models

Jesse Kisembe, Alice Favre, Alessandro Dosio, Christopher Lennard, Geoffrey Sabiiti and Alex Nimusiima

The study evaluates the ability of ten regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate the present-day rainfall over Uganda within the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) for the period 1990–2008. The models’ ability to reproduce the space-time variability of annual, seasonal,…

What Is the Added Value of a Convection-Permitting Model for Forecasting Extreme Rainfall over Tropical East Africa?

Beth J. Woodhams, Cathryn E. Birch, John H. Marsham, Caroline L. Bain, Nigel M. Roberts, and Douglas F. A. Boyd

Forecasting convective rainfall in the tropics is a major challenge for numerical weather prediction. The use of convection-permitting (CP) forecast models in the tropics has lagged behind the midlatitudes, despite the great potential of such models in this region. In…

Detection and attribution of human influence on regional precipitation

Beena Balan Sarojini, Peter A. Stott and Emily Black

Understanding how human influence on the climate is affecting precipitation around the world is immensely important for defining mitigation policies, and for adaptation planning. Yet despite increasing evidence for the influence of climate change on global patterns of precipitation, and…

Causes of the uncertainty in projections of tropical terrestrial rainfall change: East Africa

David P. Rowell and Robin Chadwick

Understanding why different climate models produce different projections of future regional climate change is critical for the evaluation of the reliability of their projections. This study investigates the causes of projection spread across CMIP5 models for seasonal mean rainfall change…

Changes in climate extremes over West and Central Africa at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming.

Arona Diedhiou, Adeline Bichet, Richard Wartenburger, Sonia I Seneviratne, David P Rowell, Mouhamadou B Sylla, Ismaila Diallo, Stella Todzo, N’datchoh E Tour´, Moctar Camara, Benjamin Ngounou Ngatchah, Ndjido AKane, Laure Tall and Francois Affholder

In this study, we investigate changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over West and Central Africa (hereafter, WAF domain) as a function of global mean temperature with a focus on the implications of global warming of 1.5 ◦C and 2◦C…

Skilful prediction of Sahel summer rainfall on inter-annual and multi-year timescales

K.L. Sheen, D.M. Smith, N.J. Dunstone, R. Eade, D.P. Rowell and M. Vellinga

Summer rainfall in the Sahel region of Africa exhibits one of the largest signals of climatic variability and with a population reliant on agricultural productivity, the Sahel is particularly vulnerable to major droughts such as occurred in the 1970s and…

Teleconnections between Ethiopian rainfall variability and global SSTs: observations and methods for model evaluation

Mekonnen Adnew Degefu, David P. Rowell and Woldeamlak Bewket

Rainfall variability in Ethiopia has significant effects on rainfed agriculture and hydropower, so understanding its association with slowly varying global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is potentially important for prediction purposes. This research provides an overview of the seasonality and spatial…