PUBLICATIONS

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The effect of westerlies on East African rainfall and the associated role of tropical cyclones and the Madden‐Julian Oscillation

Declan L. Finney, John H. Marsham Dean P. Walker Cathryn E. Birch Beth J. Woodhams Lawrence S. Jackson Sam Hardy

Variability of rainfall in East Africa has major impacts on lives and livelihoods. From floods to droughts, this variability is important on short daily timescales to longer decadal timescales, as is apparent from the devastating effects of droughts in East…

The Influence of Remote Aerosol Forcing from Industrialized Economies on the Future Evolution of East and West African Rainfall

Claire Scannell, Ben B. B. Booth, Nick J. Dunstone, David P. Rowell, Dan J. Bernie, Matthew Kasoar, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Laura J. Wilcox, Juan C. Acosta Navarro, Øyvind Seland, and David J. Paynter

Past changes in global industrial aerosol emissions have played a significant role in historical shifts in African rainfall, and yet assessment of the impact on African rainfall of near-term (10–40 yr) potential aerosol emission pathways remains largely unexplored. While existing…

‘Eastern African Paradox’ rainfall decline due to shorter not less intense Long Rains

Caroline M. Wainwright, John H. Marsham, Richard J. Keane, David P. Rowell, Declan L. Finney, Emily Black, and Richard P. Allan

An observed decline in the Eastern African Long Rains from the 1980s to late 2000s appears contrary to the projected increase under future climate change. This “Eastern African climate paradox” confounds use of climate projections for adaptation planning across Eastern…

Scientific Understanding of East African climate change from the HyCRISTAL project

Declan Finney, John Marsham, Dave Rowell et al.

Integrating Hydro-Climate Science into Policy Decisions for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure and Livelihoods in East Africa (HyCRISTAL) is a Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) project funded to deliver new understanding of East African climate change and its impacts, and to demonstrate use…

Implications of improved representation of convection for the East Africa water budget using a convection permitting model

Declan L. Finney, John H. Marsham, Lawrence S. Jackson, Elizabeth J. Kendon, David P. Rowell, Penelope M. Boorman, Richard J. Keane, Rachel A. Stratton and Catherine A. Senior

The precipitation and diabatic heating resulting from moist convection make it a key component of the atmospheric water budget in the tropics. With convective parametrisation being a known source of uncertainty in global models, convection-permitting (CP) models are increasingly being…

Future changes and uncertainty in decision-relevant measures of East African climate

F. Jorge Bornemann, David P. Rowell, Barbara Evans, Dan J. Lapworth, Kamazima Lwiza, David M.J. Macdonald, John H. Marsham, Kindie Tesfaye, Matthew J. Ascott, and Celia Way

The need for the development of adaptation strategies for climate change in Africa is becoming critical. For example, infrastructure with a long lifespan now needs to be designed or adapted to account for a future climate that will be different…

Identifying key controls on storm formation over the Lake Victoria Basin

Beth J. Woodhams, Cathryn E. Birch, John H. Marsham, Todd P. Lane, Caroline L. Bain, and Stuart Webster

The Lake Victoria region in East Africa is a hotspot for intense convective storms that are responsible for the deaths of thousands of fisherman each year. The processes responsible for the initiation, development and propagation of the storms are poorly…

An Observational Constraint on CMIP5 Projections of the East African Long Rains and Southern Indian Ocean Warming

David P. Rowell

Two outlying projections of the East African Long Rains suggest the seasonal rainfall may double by the late 21st century. Previous work has linked these extremes—found in the IPSL‐CM5A model—to an exceptional March to May warming of the southern Indian…

Later Wet Seasons with More Intense Rainfall over Africa under Future Climate Change

Caroline M. Dunning, Emily Black and Richard P. Allan

Changes in the seasonality of precipitation over Africa have high potential for detrimental socioeconomic impacts due to high societal dependence upon seasonal rainfall. Here, for the first time we conduct a continental-scale analysis of changes in wet season characteristics under…

Evaluation of rainfall simulations over Uganda in CORDEX regional climate models

Jesse Kisembe, Alice Favre, Alessandro Dosio, Christopher Lennard, Geoffrey Sabiiti and Alex Nimusiima

The study evaluates the ability of ten regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate the present-day rainfall over Uganda within the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) for the period 1990–2008. The models’ ability to reproduce the space-time variability of annual, seasonal,…