PUBLICATIONS

Loading...

An Observational Constraint on CMIP5 Projections of the East African Long Rains and Southern Indian Ocean Warming

David P. Rowell

Two outlying projections of the East African Long Rains suggest the seasonal rainfall may double by the late 21st century. Previous work has linked these extremes—found in the IPSL‐CM5A model—to an exceptional March to May warming of the southern Indian…

Later Wet Seasons with More Intense Rainfall over Africa under Future Climate Change

Caroline M. Dunning, Emily Black and Richard P. Allan

Changes in the seasonality of precipitation over Africa have high potential for detrimental socioeconomic impacts due to high societal dependence upon seasonal rainfall. Here, for the first time we conduct a continental-scale analysis of changes in wet season characteristics under…

Evaluation of rainfall simulations over Uganda in CORDEX regional climate models

Jesse Kisembe, Alice Favre, Alessandro Dosio, Christopher Lennard, Geoffrey Sabiiti and Alex Nimusiima

The study evaluates the ability of ten regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate the present-day rainfall over Uganda within the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) for the period 1990–2008. The models’ ability to reproduce the space-time variability of annual, seasonal,…

What Is the Added Value of a Convection-Permitting Model for Forecasting Extreme Rainfall over Tropical East Africa?

Beth J. Woodhams, Cathryn E. Birch, John H. Marsham, Caroline L. Bain, Nigel M. Roberts, and Douglas F. A. Boyd

Forecasting convective rainfall in the tropics is a major challenge for numerical weather prediction. The use of convection-permitting (CP) forecast models in the tropics has lagged behind the midlatitudes, despite the great potential of such models in this region. In…

Brief: Possible futures for urban East Africa under a changing climate

Laura Burgin, Met Office, UK; Grady Walker, Walker Institute, University of Reading; Celia Way, University of Leeds; Rosalind Cornforth, Walker Institute, University of Reading; Barbara Evans, University of Leeds; Dave Rowell, Met Office, UK; John Marsham, University of Leeds; Fred Semazzi, North Carolina State University; Geoffrey Sabiiti, Makerere University, ICPAC; Andrew Ainslie, University of Reading; Julio Araujo, SouthSouthNorth; Matthew Ascott, British Geological Survey; Dai Clegg, Evidence for Development; Andrew Clenaghan, Practical Action; Dan Lapworth, British Geological Survey; Kamazima Lwiza, Stony Brook University; David Macdonald, British Geological Survey; Celia Petty, Evidence for Development; John Seaman, Evidence for Development; Caroline Wainwright, University of Reading

Three possibilities for what the climate might be like in 2050 and the resulting impacts felt by urban areas of East Africa are described here. Three climate futures have been selected to demonstrate a range of plausible futures but they…

Infographic: Possible futures for urban East Africa under a changing climate

Laura Burgin, Met Office, UK; Grady Walker, Walker Institute, University of Reading; Celia Way, University of Leeds; Rosalind Cornforth, Walker Institute, University of Reading; Barbara Evans, University of Leeds; Dave Rowell, Met Office, UK; John Marsham, University of Leeds; Fred Semazzi, North Carolina State University; Geoffrey Sabiiti, Makerere University, ICPAC; Andrew Ainslie, University of Reading; Julio Araujo, SouthSouthNorth; Matthew Ascott, British Geological Survey; Dai Clegg, Evidence for Development; Andrew Clenaghan, Practical Action; Dan Lapworth, British Geological Survey; Kamazima Lwiza, Stony Brook University; David Macdonald, British Geological Survey; Celia Petty, Evidence for Development; John Seaman, Evidence for Development; Caroline Wainwright, University of Reading

The impacts of climate change will vary across the region according to a range of local factors. This infographic represents the impacts that may be felt in Urban East Africa under three different possible climate futures. Which of these impacts could be…

Infographic: Possible futures for rural East Africa under a changing climate

Laura Burgin, Met Office, UK; Grady Walker, Walker Institute, University of Reading; Celia Way, University of Leeds; Rosalind Cornforth, Walker Institute, University of Reading; Barbara Evans, University of Leeds; Dave Rowell, Met Office, UK; John Marsham, University of Leeds; Fred Semazzi, North Carolina State University; Geoffrey Sabiiti, Makerere University, ICPAC; Andrew Ainslie, University of Reading; Julio Araujo, SouthSouthNorth; Matthew Ascott, British Geological Survey; Dai Clegg, Evidence for Development; Andrew Clenaghan, Practical Action; Dan Lapworth, British Geological Survey; Kamazima Lwiza, Stony Brook University; David Macdonald, British Geological Survey; Celia Petty, Evidence for Development; John Seaman, Evidence for Development; Caroline Wainwright, University of Reading

The impacts of climate change will vary across the region according to a range of local factors. This infographic represents the impacts that may be felt in rural East Africa under three different possible climate futures. Which of these impacts…

Brief: Possible futures for Rural East Africa under a changing climate

Laura Burgin, Met Office, UK; Grady Walker, Walker Institute, University of Reading; Celia Way, University of Leeds; Rosalind Cornforth, Walker Institute, University of Reading; Barbara Evans, University of Leeds; Dave Rowell, Met Office, UK; John Marsham, University of Leeds; Fred Semazzi, North Carolina State University; Geoffrey Sabiiti, Makerere University, ICPAC; Andrew Ainslie, University of Reading; Julio Araujo, SouthSouthNorth; Matthew Ascott, British Geological Survey; Dai Clegg, Evidence for Development; Andrew Clenaghan, Practical Action; Dan Lapworth, British Geological Survey; Kamazima Lwiza, Stony Brook University; David Macdonald, British Geological Survey; Celia Petty, Evidence for Development; John Seaman, Evidence for Development; Caroline Wainwright, University of Reading

These stories describe three possible futures for rural East Africa in 2050. How the climate will change in the coming decades is uncertain, so three different plausible futures are included to demonstrate this range. These futures do not cover every…

Detection and attribution of human influence on regional precipitation

Beena Balan Sarojini, Peter A. Stott and Emily Black

Understanding how human influence on the climate is affecting precipitation around the world is immensely important for defining mitigation policies, and for adaptation planning. Yet despite increasing evidence for the influence of climate change on global patterns of precipitation, and…

Causes of the uncertainty in projections of tropical terrestrial rainfall change: East Africa

David P. Rowell and Robin Chadwick

Understanding why different climate models produce different projections of future regional climate change is critical for the evaluation of the reliability of their projections. This study investigates the causes of projection spread across CMIP5 models for seasonal mean rainfall change…