PUBLICATIONS

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Larger Future Intensification of Rainfall in the West African Sahel in a Convection‐Permitting Model

S. Berthou, E. J. Kendon, D. P. Rowell, M. J. Roberts, S. Tucker, R. A. Stratton

Monsoon rainfall in West Africa mostly comes from mesoscale convective systems, which are not well represented by standard convection‐parameterized regional climate models (RCMs). We use a 4.5 km resolution convection‐permitting RCM (CP4A) which has a good representation of these processes in…

Sahelian Precipitation Change Induced by SST Increase: The Contrasting Roles of Regional and Larger‐Scale Drivers

Ross D. Dixon, Philippe Peyrillé Françoise Guichard

Representing the West African Monsoon is a major challenge in climate modeling because of complex mechanisms of interaction across scales. We study the monsoon precipitation response to a 4K increase in sea surface temperatures using an idealized meridional‐vertical (2D) model,…

The Influence of Remote Aerosol Forcing from Industrialized Economies on the Future Evolution of East and West African Rainfall

Claire Scannell, Ben B. B. Booth, Nick J. Dunstone, David P. Rowell, Dan J. Bernie, Matthew Kasoar, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Laura J. Wilcox, Juan C. Acosta Navarro, Øyvind Seland, and David J. Paynter

Past changes in global industrial aerosol emissions have played a significant role in historical shifts in African rainfall, and yet assessment of the impact on African rainfall of near-term (10–40 yr) potential aerosol emission pathways remains largely unexplored. While existing…

Evidence of crop production losses in West Africa due to historical global warming in two crop models

Benjamin Sultan, Dimitri Defrance and Toshichika Iizumi

Achieving food security goals in West Africa will depend on the capacity of the agricultural sector to feed the rapidly growing population and to moderate the adverse impacts of climate change. Indeed, a number of studies anticipate a reduction of…

Rainfall intensification in tropical semi-arid regions: the Sahelian case

Gérémy Panthou, Thierry Lebel, Theo Vischel, Guillaume Quantin, Youssouph Sane, Ousmane Ndiaye, Aïda Diongue-Niang, and Marianne Diopkane

An anticipated consequence of ongoing global warming is the intensification of the rainfall regimes meaning longer dry spells and heavier precipitation when it rains, with potentially high hydrological and socio-economic impacts. The semi-arid regions of the intertropical band, such as…

Assessment of the Representation of West African Storm Lifecycles in Convection‐Permitting Simulations

Julia Crook, Cornelia Klein, Sonja Folwell, Christopher M. Taylor, Douglas J. Parker, Rachel Stratton, and Thorwald Stein

Convection‐permitting models perform better at representing the diurnal cycle and the intermittency of convective rainfall over land than parameterized‐convection models. However, most of the previous model assessments have been from an Eulerian point of view, while key impacts of the…

Trends in flood events and their relationship to extreme rainfall in an urban area of Sahelian West Africa: The case study of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

Fowe Tazen, Abdoulaye Diarra, Rodrigue F.W. Kabore, Boubacar Ibrahim, Maïmouna Bologo/Traoré, Karim Traoré, and Harouna Karambiri

Urban areas in Sahelian West Africa are highly vulnerable to extreme hydro‐meteorological events. In recent years, Burkina Faso has experienced several natural disasters with floods being the most frequent. This study investigates flood trends in Ouagadougou and their relationship to…

Less frequent and more intense rainfall along the coast of the Gulf of Guinea in West and Central Africa (1981–2014)

Adeline Bichet and Arona Diedhiou

Since the 1990s, rainfall has been reported to increase over the Gulf of Guinea. In light of the devastating floods that have occurred since the 1990s over the coastal areas of this region, this work aims to better characterize the…

Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) rainfall curves in Senegal

Youssouph Sane, Geremy Panthou, Ansoumana Bodian, Theo Vischel, Thierry Lebel, Honore Dacosta, Guillaume Quantin, Catherine Wilcox, Ousmane Ndiaye, Aida Diongue-Niang, and Mariane Diop Kane

Urbanization resulting from sharply increasing demographic pressure and infrastructure development has made the populations of many tropical areas more vulnerable to extreme rainfall hazards. Characterizing extreme rainfall distribution in a coherent way in space and time is thus becoming an…

Improved climatological precipitation characteristics over West Africa at convection-permitting scales

Ségolène Berthou, David P. Rowell, Elizabeth J. Kendon, Malcolm J. Roberts, Rachel A. Stratton, Julia A. Crook, and Catherine Wilcox

The West African climate is unique and challenging to reproduce using standard resolution climate models as a large proportion of precipitation comes from organised deep convection. For the first time, a regional 4.5 km convection permitting simulation was performed on a…