PUBLICATIONS

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The First Forecasters' Handbook for West Africa

Cornforth, R., Parker, D.J., Diop-Kane, M., Fink, A.H., Lafore, J.P., Laing, A., Afiesimama, E., Caughey, J., Diongue-Niang, A., Kassimou, A. and Lamb, P.

Bridging the gap between rapidly moving scientific research and specific forecasting tools, Meteorology of Tropical West Africa: The Forecasters’ Handbook gives unprecedented access to the latest science for the region’s forecasters, researchers, and students and combines this with pragmatic approaches to forecasting.…

Evidence of crop production losses in West Africa due to historical global warming in two crop models

Benjamin Sultan, Dimitri Defrance and Toshichika Iizumi

Achieving food security goals in West Africa will depend on the capacity of the agricultural sector to feed the rapidly growing population and to moderate the adverse impacts of climate change. Indeed, a number of studies anticipate a reduction of…

Rainfall intensification in tropical semi-arid regions: the Sahelian case

Gérémy Panthou, Thierry Lebel, Theo Vischel, Guillaume Quantin, Youssouph Sane, Ousmane Ndiaye, Aïda Diongue-Niang, and Marianne Diopkane

An anticipated consequence of ongoing global warming is the intensification of the rainfall regimes meaning longer dry spells and heavier precipitation when it rains, with potentially high hydrological and socio-economic impacts. The semi-arid regions of the intertropical band, such as…

Assessment of the Representation of West African Storm Lifecycles in Convection‐Permitting Simulations

Julia Crook, Cornelia Klein, Sonja Folwell, Christopher M. Taylor, Douglas J. Parker, Rachel Stratton, and Thorwald Stein

Convection‐permitting models perform better at representing the diurnal cycle and the intermittency of convective rainfall over land than parameterized‐convection models. However, most of the previous model assessments have been from an Eulerian point of view, while key impacts of the…

Trends in flood events and their relationship to extreme rainfall in an urban area of Sahelian West Africa: The case study of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

Fowe Tazen, Abdoulaye Diarra, Rodrigue F.W. Kabore, Boubacar Ibrahim, Maïmouna Bologo/Traoré, Karim Traoré, and Harouna Karambiri

Urban areas in Sahelian West Africa are highly vulnerable to extreme hydro‐meteorological events. In recent years, Burkina Faso has experienced several natural disasters with floods being the most frequent. This study investigates flood trends in Ouagadougou and their relationship to…

Ecosystem structural changes controlled by altered rainfall climatology in tropical savannas

Wenmin Zhang, Martin Brandt, Josep Penuelas, Françoise Guichard, Xiaoye Tong, Feng Tian, and Rasmus Fensholt

Tropical savannas comprise mixed woodland grassland ecosystems in which trees and grasses compete for water resources thereby maintaining the spatial structuring of this ecosystem. A global change in rainfall climatology may impact the structure of tropical savanna ecosystems by favouring…

Embracing uncertainty: A discursive approach to developing pathways for climate adaptation

Ayeb-Karlsson, S., Fox, G. & Kniveton, D.

Climate change threatens to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts and floods. There are large uncertainties related to unknowns around the future and society’s responses to these threats. ‘Uncertainty’ as other words with the prefix ‘un’ (unknown, untold, unrest)…

Less frequent and more intense rainfall along the coast of the Gulf of Guinea in West and Central Africa (1981–2014)

Adeline Bichet & Arona Diedhiou

Since the 1990s, rainfall has been reported to increase over the Gulf of Guinea. In light of the devastating floods that have occurred since the 1990s over the coastal areas of this region, this work aims to better characterize the…

A summary baseline for AMMA-2050

E. Visman, G. Fox, T.A. Warnaars, K. Traoré, A. Diarra, O. Ndiaye and D.J. Parker

This report is an output from Work Package 7, with input from across all WPs.