PUBLICATIONS

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Process‐based model evaluation and projections over southern Africa from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models

Izidine Pinto, Chris Jack, and Bruce Hewitson

Decision‐scale relevant climate information on climate change is needed to inform policy and decision making but often involves high uncertainty. To enhance confidence in interpreting regional climate projections, it is important to understand the underlying physical processes driving the change.…

Climate process chains: Examples from southern Africa

Joseph Daron, Laura Burgin, Tamara Janes, Richard G. Jones, and Christopher Jack

The climate system comprises multiple components, primarily the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere, each incorporating physical processes that interact across scales. To help understand the behaviour of this complex system, and evaluate climate model simulations, researchers typically take a reductionist approach,…

A Methodological Approach to Assess the Co-Behavior of Climate Processes over Southern Africa

Kwesi A. Quagraine, Bruce Hewitson, Christopher Jack, Izidine Pinto, and Christopher Lennard

The study develops an approach to assess co-behavior of climate processes. The regional response of precipitation and temperature patterns over southern Africa to the combined roles (co-behavior) of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), and intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ)…

Projected changes in tropical cyclones over the South West Indian Ocean under different extents of global warming

Mavhungu Muthige, Johan Malherbe, Francois A. Engelbrecht, Stefan Grab, Asmerom Beraki, Robert Maisha, and J Van der Merwe

The Paris Agreement achieved in December 2015 established that the signatory countries should pursue to hold the increase in global average temperature to below 2 °C relative to the preindustrial period and to strive to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C…

Process based model evaluation and projections over southern Africa from CORDEX and CMIP5 models

Izidine Pinto, Chris Jack and Bruce Hewitson

Decision‐scale relevant climate information on climate change is needed to inform policy and decision making but often involves high uncertainty. To enhance confidence in interpreting regional climate projections, it is important to understand the underlying physical processes driving the change.…

On the likelihood of tropical-extratropical cloud bands in the South Indian Convergence Zone during ENSO events

Neil. G. Hart, Richard Washington and Chris J. C. Reason

The Southern Hemisphere subtropical convergence zones are important regions of rainfall in the subtropics. The south Indian Ocean convergence zone (SICZ) has the strongest seasonality and exhibits substantial interannual variability in strength and position during austral summer. On synoptic time…

On the Likelihood of Tropical–Extratropical Cloud Bands in the South Indian Convergence Zone during ENSO Events

Neil C. G. Hart, Richard Washington and Chris J. C. Reason

This study investigates how the seasonality in satellite-observed cloud band frequency emerges from the interplay between the asynchronous seasonal cycles in convective instability and upper-level flow, as represented by reanalysis data. These atmospheric mean states are diagnosed with a gross…

Discourse analysis as a method for understanding the framing of urban governance

Waagsaether, K.L. & Scott, D.

Discourse analysis is an analytical approach applied by social scientists as part of the FRACTAL urban governance research, and includes both analysis of verbal engagements and analysis of policies and related documents. In practical terms, this implies unpacking how language…

Interannual rainfall variability and SOM-based circulation classification

Piotr Wolski, Christopher Jack, Mark Tadross, Lisa van Aardenne and Christopher Lennard

Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) based classifications of synoptic circulation patterns are increasingly being used to interpret large-scale drivers of local climate variability and as part of statistical downscaling methodologies. These applications rely on a basic premise of synoptic climatology, i.e. that…

Framework for needs-informed research: assessing climate processes

Joseph Daron, Tamara Janes, Chris Jack, and Richard Jones

This document presents a framework for needs-informed research targeted at addressing objective 1. We outline parallel top-down and bottom-up characterisations of climate processes, where each provides an alternative starting point to pursue needs informed research. A top-down approach begins by…