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Press release: Met Office leads ground-breaking research collaboration on modelling African climate, showing enhanced future changes in wet and dry extremes

Jean-Pierre Roux, Zablone Owiti, Beth Mackay, Elizabeth Kendon, Cath Senior, Dave Rowell, John Marsham, Rachel James, Wilfried Pokam

A 4-year investment into one of the most ambitious research collaborations to date that focuses on African climate has delivered far-reaching results to advance international climate science. The international collaboration, led by the Met Office, the UK’s national meteorological service, has developed the first…

The role of regional circulation features in regulating El Nino climate impacts over Southern Africa: a comparison of the 2015/16 drought with previous events

R. C. Blamey; S. R. Kolusu; P. Mahlalela; M. C. Todd; C. J. C. Reason

Extremely dry conditions were experienced across most of southern Africa during the austral summer (October–March) of 2015/2016, associated with one of the strongest observed El Niño events in the Pacific. Dry conditions peaked in the early austral summer months (October–December)…

Causes of the uncertainty in projections of tropical terrestrial rainfall change: East Africa

David P. Rowell and Robin Chadwick

Understanding why different climate models produce different projections of future regional climate change is critical for the evaluation of the reliability of their projections. This study investigates the causes of projection spread across CMIP5 models for seasonal mean rainfall change…

Changes in climate extremes over West and Central Africa at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming.

Arona Diedhiou, Adeline Bichet, Richard Wartenburger, Sonia I Seneviratne, David P Rowell, Mouhamadou B Sylla, Ismaila Diallo, Stella Todzo, N’datchoh E Tour´, Moctar Camara, Benjamin Ngounou Ngatchah, Ndjido AKane, Laure Tall and Francois Affholder

In this study, we investigate changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over West and Central Africa (hereafter, WAF domain) as a function of global mean temperature with a focus on the implications of global warming of 1.5 ◦C and 2◦C…

Tropical storm Chedza and associated floods over south-eastern Africa

Ramontsheng S. Rapolaki and Chris J. C. Reason

Widespread flooding over parts of Malawi, Mozambique, and Madagascar occurred in January 2015. An impact assessment by the World Bank indicated huge damage to property, infrastructure, and agriculture over several regions in south-eastern Africa as well as significant loss of…

On the likelihood of tropical-extratropical cloud bands in the South Indian Convergence Zone during ENSO events

Neil. G. Hart, Richard Washington and Chris J. C. Reason

The Southern Hemisphere subtropical convergence zones are important regions of rainfall in the subtropics. The south Indian Ocean convergence zone (SICZ) has the strongest seasonality and exhibits substantial interannual variability in strength and position during austral summer. On synoptic time…

Trend in the co‐occurrence of extreme daily rainfall in West Africa since 1950

Juliette Blanchet, Claire Aly, Théo Vischel, Gérémy Panthou, Youssouph Sané and Mariane Diop Kane

We propose in this paper a statistical framework to study the evolution of the co-occurrence of extreme daily rainfall in West Africa since 1950. We consider two regions subject to contrasted rainfall regimes: Senegal and the central Sahel. We study…

Projected impacts of climate extremes over selected African coastal cities under 1.5̊C and 2.0̊C Global Warming

Indasi V S, Nikulin G, Lennard C, Hewitson B, Jack C and Waagsaether K.

Research paper contribution to the Cities IPCC Cities and Climate Change Science Conference, 5-7th March 2018, Edmonton, Canada.

A multi‐scale analysis of the extreme rain event of Ouagadougou in 2009

Jean‐Philippe Lafore, Florent Beucher, Philippe Peyrillé, Aïda Diongue‐Niang, Nicolas Chapelon, Dominique Bouniol, Guy Caniaux, Florence Favot, Frédéric Ferry, Françoise Guichard, Emmanuel Poan, Romain Roehrig and Théo Vischel

This study presents a multi‐scale analysis of an extreme rain event that occurred in Burkina Faso on 1 September 2009 with an absolute record of 263 mm rainfall observed at Ouagadougou. This high‐impact weather system results from the combination of…

Simulating the characteristics of Tropical Cyclones over the South West Indian Ocean using a Stretched-Grid Global Climate Model

Molulaqhooa L. Maoyi, Babatunde J. Abiodun, Joseph M. Prusa, Jennifer J. Veitch

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most devastating natural phenomena. This study examines the capability of a global climate model with grid stretching (CAM-EULAG, hereafter CEU) in simulating the characteristics of TCs over the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO).…