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Roy Bouwer (SouthSouthNorth, Afrique du Sud); Youssouph Sane (l’Agence Nationale de l’Aviation Civile et de la Météorologie, Senegal); Christopher Taylor (UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Royaume-Uni); Emma Visman (UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Royaume-Uni)

Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) vise à mettre au point une nouvelle science climatique fondamentalement axée sur l’Afrique, et à veiller à ce que cette science ait un impact sur le développement humain à travers le continent. Le travail du FCFA au Sénégal a porté principalement sur l’étude pilote du projet AMMA-2050 visant à soutenir une agriculture résistante au changement climatique. Outre l’amélioration de la qualité des informations scientifiques sur le climat, le projet AMMA-2050 vise à soutenir l’utilisation de ces informations sur le climat dans des contextes décisionnels régionaux et nationaux (au niveau infra-étatique).

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Maïmouna Bologo/Traore (2iE Institute, Burkina Faso); Roy Bouwer (SouthSouthNorth, South Africa); Tazen Fowe (2iE Institute, Burkina Faso); James Miller (UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, United Kingdom); Chris Taylor (UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, United Kingdom); Emma Visman (UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, United Kingdom)

Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) vise à mettre au point une nouvelle science climatique fondamentalement axée sur l’Afrique, et à veiller à ce que cette science ait un impact sur le développement humain à travers le continent. Le travail du FCFA au Burkina Faso a porté sur l’étude pilote du projet visant à soutenir une planification résistante aux inondations dans la capitale du pays, Ouagadougou. Le projet AMMA-2050’s a combiné les projections du climat futur et du changement d’utilisation des terres pour enrichir les modèles hydrologiques et la cartographie des risques d’inondation afin de renseigner les décideurs nationaux et municipaux.

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Suzanne Carter (SouthSouthNorth); Anna Steynor (Climate System Analysis Group); Katharine Vincent (Kulima Integrated Development Solutions); Emma Visman (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology King’s College London and VNG Consulting Ltd); Katinka Lund Waagsaether (Climate System Analysis Group)

This manual provides guidance on a range of co-production approaches that can be used to develop weather and climate services that seek to address climate-related risks facing affected people, sectors and livelihoods. This manual is written by people involved with the WISER and FCFA programmes, both academics and practitioners.

With co-production engaging a wide range of actors across sectors, institutions and levels of decision-making, the manual’s intended audience includes those considering using co-production to improve the impact of their own work, as well as those commissioning the development of climate services. Such audiences may, for example, include national meteorological services, regional and global climate centres, research and project managers, research institutions, media, civil society and development actors.

The manual brings together emerging learning and has also been informed by discussions undertaken in the WISER and FCFA programmes, as well as by the wider body of experience related to co-production of climate services.

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AMMA-2050 : L’Analyse multidisciplinaire de la mousson africaine, horizon 2050 visait à mieux comprendre le climat régional de l’Afrique de l’Ouest et son évolution, en appliquant ces connaissances à des questions pratiques de développement. AMMA-2050 a permis de mieux comprendre comment la mousson ouest-africaine sera affectée par le changement climatique au cours des prochaines décennies (en se concentrant sur la période allant jusqu’à 2050) et a aidé les sociétés ouest-africaines à se préparer et à s’adapter.

Grâce à la mise en commun de l’expertise d’institutions d’Afrique de l’Ouest et d’Europe, le projet collabore avec les décideurs politiques d’Afrique de l’Ouest pour identifier des options d’adaptation efficaces, en se concentrant particulièrement sur l’agriculture et la gestion des ressources en eau dans la région.

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Joanna Pardoe; Katharine Vincent; Declan Conway; Emma Archer; Andrew J. Dougill; David Mkwambisi; Dorothy Tembo-Nhlema

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we use an inductive approach and longitudinal analysis to explore political influences on the emergence and evolution of climate change adaptation policy and planning at national level, as well as the institutions within which it is embedded, for three countries in sub-Saharan Africa (Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia). Data collection involved quantitative and qualitative methods applied over a 6-year period from 2012 to 2017. This included a survey of 103 government staff (20 in Malawi, 29 in Tanzania and 54 in Zambia) and 242 interviews (106 in Malawi, 86 in Tanzania and 50 in Zambia) with a wide range of stakeholders, many of whom were interviewed multiple times over the study period, together with content analysis of relevant policy and programme documents.

Whilst the climate adaptation agenda emerged in all three countries around 2007–2009, associated with multilateral funding initiatives, the rate and nature of progress has varied—until roughly 2015 when, for different reasons, momentum slowed. We find differences between the countries in terms of specifics of how they operated, but roles of two factors in common emerge in the evolution of the climate change adaptation agendas: national leadership and allied political priorities, and the role of additional funding provided by donors. These influences lead to changes in the policy and institutional frameworks for addressing climate change, as well as in the emphasis placed on climate change adaptation.

By examining the different ways through which ideas, power and resources converge and by learning from the specific configurations in the country examples, we identify opportunities to address existing barriers to action and thus present implications that enable more effective adaptation planning in other countries. We show that more socially just and inclusive national climate adaptation planning requires a critical approach to understanding these configurations of power and politics.

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Katharine Vincent, Suzanne Carter, Anna Steynor, Emma Visman & Katinka Lund Wågsæther

Co-production is an increasingly popular approach to knowledge generation encouraged by donors and research funders. However, power dynamics between institutions in the Global North and South can, if not adequately managed, impede the effectiveness of co-production and pose risks for long-term sustainability.

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Robel Geressu; Christian Siderius; Julien J. Harou; Japhet Kashaigili; Laetitia Pettinotti; Declan Conway

ABSTRACT

Many river basins in the Global South are undergoing rapid development with major implications for the interdependent water‐energy‐food‐environmental (WEFE) “nexus” sectors. A range of views on the extent to which such natural‐human systems should be developed typically exists. The perceived best investments in river basins depend on how one frames the planning problem. Therefore, we propose an approach where the best possible (optimized) implementations of different river basin development scenarios are assessed by comparing their WEFE sector trade‐offs.

We apply the approach to Tanzania’s Rufiji river basin, an area with multiple WEFE interdependencies and high development potential (irrigation and hydropower) and ecosystem services. Performance indicators are identified through stakeholder consultation and describe WEFE sector response under scenarios of river basin development. Results show considerable potential exists for energy and irrigation expansion. Designs that prioritize energy production adversely affect environmental performance; however, part of the negative impacts can be minimized through release rules designed to replicate the natural variability of flow. The reliability of monthly energy generation is more sensitive to environmental‐oriented management than the cumulative annual energy production. Overall results highlight how sectoral trade‐offs change depending on the extent of development, something that may be difficult to regulate in the future, and that there are important basin‐scale interdependencies. Benefits and limitations of the approach and its application are discussed.

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Rebecka Henriksson; Katharine Vincent; Emmar Archer; Graham Jewitt

Smallholder farmers in the sub-Saharan Africa are vulnerable to climate variability and change, and are thus in need of adaptation. Access to climate information, such as weather forecasts, has been identified as a potential enabler for improved adaptation, but such access tends to be strongly gendered. This study uses qualitative and quantitative data to assess the availability, accessibility and use of climate information among smallholder sugarcane farmers in southern Malawi, disaggregating data according to gender, age, education level and landholding size. We found that radio is the most common, and preferred, means of accessing forecasts for men and women, but that women farmers also prefer to access forecasts through a knowledge broker. Those farmers with higher levels of education (mostly men) prefer to also obtain forecasts via internet and cell phone. Most farmers consider the forecasts reliable, timely and understandable – more so in the case of men than women. Understanding gendered preferences and barriers to climate information access is crucial for benefits of adaptation to be accessed equitably.

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Cornelia Klein and Christopher M. Taylor

ABSTRACT

Soil moisture can feed back on rainfall through the impact of surface fluxes on the environment in which convection develops. The vast majority of previous research has focused on the initiation of convection, but in many regions of the world, the majority of rain comes from remotely triggered mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Here we conduct a systematic observational analysis of soil moisture feedbacks on propagating MCSs anywhere in the world and show a strong positive impact of drier soils on convection within mature MCSs. From thousands of storms captured in satellite imagery over the Sahel, we find that convective cores within MCSs are favored on the downstream side of dry patches ≥200 km across. The effect is particularly strong during the afternoon–evening transition when convection reaches its diurnal peak in intensity and frequency, with dry soils accounting for an additional one in five convective cores. Dry soil patterns intensify MCSs through a combination of convergence, increased instability, and wind shear, all factors that strengthen organized convection. These favorable conditions tend to occur in the vicinity of a surface-induced anomalous displacement of the Sahelian dry line/intertropical discontinuity, suggesting a strong link between dry line dynamics and soil moisture state. Our results have important implications for nowcasting of severe weather in the Sahel and potentially in other MCS hotspot regions of the world.

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Caroline M. Wainwright; Declan L. Finney; Mary Kilavi; Emily Black; John H. Marsham

ABSTRACT

The 2019 October–December rains over East Africa were one of the wettest seasons on record, with many locations receiving more than double the climatological rainfall, leading to floods and landslides. The wet conditions were associated with the positive Indian Ocean Dipole event, with warm sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean. Seasonal forecasts correctly predicted above average rainfall during the season. Climate model projections suggest that such events may become more frequent under future climate change.

East Africa’s 2019 short rains (October–December [OND]) were one of the wettest in recent decades. Floods and landslides occurred across the region, with initial estimates suggesting over 2.8 million people were adversely affected. Here we highlight some of the factors associated with this anomalously wet season and discuss the season in relation to the expected climate change signals over the region.

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