PUBLICATIONS

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Brief: Projecting future water availability in Lake Malawi and the Shire River basin

Ajay G. Bhave, Lauren Bulcock, Suraje Dessai, Declan Conway, Graham Jewitt, Andy J. Dougill, Seshagiri Rao Kolusu and David Mkwambisi

Malawi is highly dependent on water from Lake Malawi and the Shire River basin (Figure 1). Over 90% of Malawi’s electricity depends on outflows from the lake into the Shire River which feed three existing hydropower plants – Tedzani, Nkula…

Mechanisms behind early winter rainfall variability in the southwestern Cape, South Africa

Precious T. Mahlalela and Ross C. Blamey

The southwest region of South Africa is the only part of southern Africa that predominantly receives its total annual rainfall during the austral winter months (April–September). In 2015–2017, this part of the country experienced extreme dry conditions which led to…

Climate change in the Congo Basin: processes related to wetting in the December–February dry season

Amy Creese, Richard Washington, and Richard Jones

The Congo Basin is one of three key areas of tropical convection and contains the planet’s second largest rainforest. Understanding how global warming might change its climate is crucial, particularly during the dry seasons, when rainfall amounts currently bring the…

Think piece: Exploring perspectives that underpin decisions for southern African urban development

Wilma Nchito, Brenda Mwalukanga, Chipampata Musonda, Bernard Thole, Burnet Mkandawire, Tawina Mlowa, Dereck Mamiwa, Chipo Plaxedes Mubaya, Rudo Mamombe, Natsai Kushata and Alice McClure

This think piece was developed as part of FRACTAL’s innovation fund programme. FRACTAL research has found decision spaces in rapidly growing urban centres of southern Africa to be very complex. Hence this project looked at real case studies in three…

Brief: Zambia’s adaptation to climate change

Ali Romdhani, Monica Coll Besa, Dianne Scott, and Sukaina Bharwani

This brief explores how certain ideas and framing potentially shape state action in Zambia. The analysis is based on a review of five key policy documents from Zambian institutions, with a special focus on Lusaka, the nation’s capital. The brief…

The Story of Water in Windhoek: A Narrative Approach to Interpreting a Transdisciplinary Process

Dianne Scott, Kornelia N. Iipinge, John K. E. Mfune, Davison Muchadenyika, Olavi V. Makuti, and Gina Ziervogel

The aim of the paper is to present a story about the 2015 to early 2017 Windhoek drought in the context of climate change while using the narrative approach. The story that is presented here is derived from the engagement…

Process‐based model evaluation and projections over southern Africa from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models

Izidine Pinto, Chris Jack, and Bruce Hewitson

Decision‐scale relevant climate information on climate change is needed to inform policy and decision making but often involves high uncertainty. To enhance confidence in interpreting regional climate projections, it is important to understand the underlying physical processes driving the change.…

Climate process chains: Examples from southern Africa

Joseph Daron, Laura Burgin, Tamara Janes, Richard G. Jones, and Christopher Jack

The climate system comprises multiple components, primarily the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere, each incorporating physical processes that interact across scales. To help understand the behaviour of this complex system, and evaluate climate model simulations, researchers typically take a reductionist approach,…

A Methodological Approach to Assess the Co-Behavior of Climate Processes over Southern Africa

Kwesi A. Quagraine, Bruce Hewitson, Christopher Jack, Izidine Pinto, and Christopher Lennard

The study develops an approach to assess co-behavior of climate processes. The regional response of precipitation and temperature patterns over southern Africa to the combined roles (co-behavior) of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), and intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ)…

Projected changes in tropical cyclones over the South West Indian Ocean under different extents of global warming

Mavhungu Muthige, Johan Malherbe, Francois A. Engelbrecht, Stefan Grab, Asmerom Beraki, Robert Maisha, and J Van der Merwe

The Paris Agreement achieved in December 2015 established that the signatory countries should pursue to hold the increase in global average temperature to below 2 °C relative to the preindustrial period and to strive to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C…