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October 2021 Newsletter


Roy Bouwer


October 22, 2021


Welcome to the final edition of the Future Climate for Africa newsletter showcasing the highlights and work of the FCFA programme. 

 Select HERE to see full newsletter
FCFA in Numbers
News in Brief

Climate Change Predictions Build Resilience In African Tea Production

Researchers in the UK and Africa have teamed up to help tea producers better understand future climate risks so that they can reduce crop damage caused by climate change. Kenya and Malawi produce more than half the tea Britons consume and the crop makes up about 7% of Malawi’s GDP and 4% of Kenya’s. In recent years frosts followed by high daytime temperatures have reduced yields, as have longer and more intense dry spells. The plants are particularly sensitive to climate and the research suggests that without interventions aimed at specific locations tea production will decline in Kenya and Malawi by the 2050s – and fall significantly further by the 2080s.

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UMFULA final workshop in Tanzania

The end, but not really not the end…….how best to bring to a close over five years of interactions and collaborations? Well, it’s not ideal using Zoom, but we made the best of things on September 21st when we formally handed over the main outputs of UMFULA to the Rufiji Basin Water Board.

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Brief: Climate Change and Its Impacts in Burkina Faso  

In this policy brief, we set out how the climate of the Sahel has changed in recent decades, what future changes are expected, and some implications of these changes for agriculture and flooding in Burkina Faso. There are many uncertainties when considering future impacts of global warming within a specific region. Here we present the range of plausible futures so that this uncertainty can be taken into account by decision-makers.

Download the brief

Blog Post: Using The IPCC’s Interactive Atlas To Understand How Africa’s Climate Is Changing  

In August 2021, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the Sixth Assessment Report of Working Group 1 (WGI): Climate Change 2021, The Physical Science Basis. The report highlights how human activities are already having a significant impact on our climate and stresses the urgency of reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to avoid warming beyond 1.5℃ – 2℃ above preindustrial levels. Along with their landmark report, WGI also released the interactive atlas. The atlas allows users to explore different regions of the world to see how climate variables might change in the near, medium and long term, and at different levels of global warming.

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Brief: Promoting Southern Leadership within Climate Research Programmes

This brief reflects on the learning generated through the Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) programme, particularly examining how to promote Southern leadership opportunities for researchers from the Global South through programme design. It details some of the key challenges experienced by researchers from the Global South, and outlines how programme design can overcome some of the obstacles.

Download the brief 

Brief: FRACTAL Principles

During the FRACTAL project, trans-disciplinary learning processes were implemented that aimed to support climate resilient development in nine southern African cities. These processes resulted in several lessons for research and society, particularly with regard to working towards inclusive, contextual, proactive climate research and action.

The team brainstormed principles that underpinned climate resilience work in the project. Evidence from the programme was qualitatively analysed using the principles as a framework to uncover the mindsets and practices that supported  ‘the FRACTAL approach’.

Download the brief


Key FCFA Products

FCFA evaluation:

This brief synthesises the findings from an evaluation of the FCFA programme over the past 6 years of implementation. The evaluation aimed to assess the impacts, outcomes and achievements of the programme in relation to the programme Theory of Change (ToC), with a particular focus on, ‘Improved medium-term (5-40yr) decision making, policies, planning and investments by African stakeholders and donors’.

Download the brief

Explore the full range of FCFA Synthesis products:

Visit the FCFA website to view the full range of FCFA synthesis products. 

Explore the series of FCFA impact stories:

Between 2018-2021 FCFA produced a range of impact case studies to demonstrate “the story of change” of the various approaches adopted within the programme.

Explore the series of FCFA impact stories 


Recent journal articles by FCFA researchers

Chapman, S., Birch, C.E., Galdos, M.V., Pope, E., Davie, J., Bradshaw, C., Eze, S. and Marsham, J.H., 2021. Assessing the impact of climate change on soil erosion in East Africa using a convection-permitting climate modelEnvironmental Research Letters16(8), p.084006.
Dosio, A., Pinto, I., Lennard, C., Sylla, M.B., Jack, C. and Nikulin, G., 2021. What can we know about recent past precipitation over Africa? Daily characteristics of African precipitation from a large ensemble of observational products for model evaluationEarth and Space Science, p.e2020EA001466.
Fall, C.M.N., Lavaysse, C., Kerdiles, H., Dramé, M.S., Roudier, P. and Gaye, A.T., 2021. Performance of dry and wet spells combined with remote sensing indicators for crop yield prediction in Senegal. Climate Risk Management, p.100331.
Folwell, S. S., Taylor, C. M. and  Stratton, R. A.2021: Contrasting water and energy feedbacks in idealised convection permitting vs parameterised simulations over Africa. Climate Dynamics [Submitted]
Garcia-Carreras, L., Marsham, J.H., Stratton, R.A. and Tucker, S., 2021. Capturing convection essential for projections of climate change in African dust emissionnpj Climate and Atmospheric Science4(1), pp.1-8.
Klein, C., Jackson, L.S., Parker, D.J., Marsham, J.H., Taylor, C.M., Rowell, D.P., Guichard, F., Vischel, T., Famien, A.M.L. and Diedhiou, A., 2021. Combining CMIP data with a regional convection-permitting model and observations to project extreme rainfall under climate changeEnvironmental Research Letters.
Mahony, J., Dyer, E. and Washington, R., 2021. The precipitation patterns and atmospheric dynamics of the Serengeti National ParkInternational Journal of Climatology41, pp.E2051-E2072.
Mittal, N., Rowell, D.P., Dougill, A.J., Becker, B., Marsham, J.H., Bore, J., Tallontire, A., Vincent, K., Mkwambisi, D. and Sang, J., 2021. Tailored climate projections to assess site-specific vulnerability of tea productionClimate Risk Management, p.100367.
Spavins‐Hicks, Z.D., Washington, R. and Munday, C., 2021. The Limpopo Low‐Level Jet: Mean climatology and role in water vapour transportJournal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, p.e2020JD034364.
Taylor, A., van Rooyen, L., McClure, A., Iipinge, K., Mwalukanga, B. and Mamombe, R. 2021. Embedded researchers as transdisciplinary boundary spanners strengthening urban climate resilience. Environmental Science and Policy. [Accepted]
Woodhams, B.J., Barrett, P.A., Marsham, J.H., Birch, C.E., Bain, C.L., Fletcher, J.K., Hartley, A.J., Webster, S. and Mangeni, S., 2021. Aircraft observations of the lake‐land breeze circulation over Lake VictoriaQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society.


Upcoming Opportunities

Join the Adaptation Research Alliance:

The Adaptation Research Alliance (ARA) is growing its membership! Join a global collective driving action-oriented research for climate adaptation. The ARA aims to co-develop innovative solutions that urgently meet the needs of those most vulnerable to climate change by bringing together funders, policy-makers, grassroots actors and the research community.

Learn more about the ARA here, follow us on Twitter or get in touch at:

Invitation: The Africa Climate Mobility Initiative (ACMI)

The Africa Climate Mobility Initiative (ACMI) — a recently launched, joint effort of the African Union Commission, the UN, and the World Bank — is inviting African researchers and practitioners to contribute to its upcoming virtual Consultations.

The ACMI aims to generate political momentum, a common policy agenda, and partnerships for tackling the challenges and opportunities of climate forced mobility in Africa. Leading up to COP27 in 2022, the ACMI is advancing its objectives through the preparation of a comprehensive Report and Agenda for Action entitled “Shaping the Future of Mobility in Africa: Addressing Climate-Forced Displacement & Migration”. The Report draws on cutting-edge modeling of future climate mobility scenarios in Africa, as well as primary data collection among affected people and communities in seven African locations. Starting in November, the ACMI will organize a series of multi-stakeholder Consultations to develop a shared analysis of the modeling results and research findings through the lens of five key geographies on the continent: 1) Coastal and Delta Areas, 2) Urban Areas, 3) Rural Areas, 4) Pastoral Areas, and 5) Borderlands.

If you are interested in learning more and contributing to the process,  for further information please contact


So long and thanks for all the work!

As the FCFA programme nears its conclusion, we would like to thank everyone who has contributed to the success of the programme. While we have made considerable progress, there is still a lot of work to be done to ensure the resilience of the African continent. We look forward to seeing how FCFA’s advances and lessons are taken up into the future to continue efforts in this regard.

In the meantime you can still contact the CCKE team on, or visit our website to access any of our resources on