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Brief: Possible futures for urban East Africa under a changing climate

Laura Burgin, Met Office, UK; Grady Walker, Walker Institute, University of Reading; Celia Way, University of Leeds; Rosalind Cornforth, Walker Institute, University of Reading; Barbara Evans, University of Leeds; Dave Rowell, Met Office, UK; John Marsham, University of Leeds; Fred Semazzi, North Carolina State University; Geoffrey Sabiiti, Makerere University, ICPAC; Andrew Ainslie, University of Reading; Julio Araujo, SouthSouthNorth; Matthew Ascott, British Geological Survey; Dai Clegg, Evidence for Development; Andrew Clenaghan, Practical Action; Dan Lapworth, British Geological Survey; Kamazima Lwiza, Stony Brook University; David Macdonald, British Geological Survey; Celia Petty, Evidence for Development; John Seaman, Evidence for Development; Caroline Wainwright, University of Reading

Three possibilities for what the climate might be like in 2050 and the resulting impacts felt by urban areas of East Africa are described here. Three climate futures have been selected to demonstrate a range of plausible futures but they…

Infographic: Possible futures for urban East Africa under a changing climate

Laura Burgin, Met Office, UK; Grady Walker, Walker Institute, University of Reading; Celia Way, University of Leeds; Rosalind Cornforth, Walker Institute, University of Reading; Barbara Evans, University of Leeds; Dave Rowell, Met Office, UK; John Marsham, University of Leeds; Fred Semazzi, North Carolina State University; Geoffrey Sabiiti, Makerere University, ICPAC; Andrew Ainslie, University of Reading; Julio Araujo, SouthSouthNorth; Matthew Ascott, British Geological Survey; Dai Clegg, Evidence for Development; Andrew Clenaghan, Practical Action; Dan Lapworth, British Geological Survey; Kamazima Lwiza, Stony Brook University; David Macdonald, British Geological Survey; Celia Petty, Evidence for Development; John Seaman, Evidence for Development; Caroline Wainwright, University of Reading

The impacts of climate change will vary across the region according to a range of local factors. This infographic represents the impacts that may be felt in Urban East Africa under three different possible climate futures. Which of these impacts could be…

Infographic: Possible futures for rural East Africa under a changing climate

Laura Burgin, Met Office, UK; Grady Walker, Walker Institute, University of Reading; Celia Way, University of Leeds; Rosalind Cornforth, Walker Institute, University of Reading; Barbara Evans, University of Leeds; Dave Rowell, Met Office, UK; John Marsham, University of Leeds; Fred Semazzi, North Carolina State University; Geoffrey Sabiiti, Makerere University, ICPAC; Andrew Ainslie, University of Reading; Julio Araujo, SouthSouthNorth; Matthew Ascott, British Geological Survey; Dai Clegg, Evidence for Development; Andrew Clenaghan, Practical Action; Dan Lapworth, British Geological Survey; Kamazima Lwiza, Stony Brook University; David Macdonald, British Geological Survey; Celia Petty, Evidence for Development; John Seaman, Evidence for Development; Caroline Wainwright, University of Reading

The impacts of climate change will vary across the region according to a range of local factors. This infographic represents the impacts that may be felt in rural East Africa under three different possible climate futures. Which of these impacts…

Brief: Possible futures for Rural East Africa under a changing climate

Laura Burgin, Met Office, UK; Grady Walker, Walker Institute, University of Reading; Celia Way, University of Leeds; Rosalind Cornforth, Walker Institute, University of Reading; Barbara Evans, University of Leeds; Dave Rowell, Met Office, UK; John Marsham, University of Leeds; Fred Semazzi, North Carolina State University; Geoffrey Sabiiti, Makerere University, ICPAC; Andrew Ainslie, University of Reading; Julio Araujo, SouthSouthNorth; Matthew Ascott, British Geological Survey; Dai Clegg, Evidence for Development; Andrew Clenaghan, Practical Action; Dan Lapworth, British Geological Survey; Kamazima Lwiza, Stony Brook University; David Macdonald, British Geological Survey; Celia Petty, Evidence for Development; John Seaman, Evidence for Development; Caroline Wainwright, University of Reading

These stories describe three possible futures for rural East Africa in 2050. How the climate will change in the coming decades is uncertain, so three different plausible futures are included to demonstrate this range. These futures do not cover every…

On the use and misuse of climate change projections in international development

Hannah Nissan, Lisa Goddard, Erin Coughlan de Perez, John Furlow, Walter Baethgen, Madeleine C. Thomson, Simon J. Mason

Climate resilience is increasingly prioritized by international development agencies and national governments. However, current approaches to informing communities of future climate risk are problematic. The predominant focus on end-of-century projections neglects more pressing development concerns, which relate to the management of shorter-term risks and…

Madagascar influence on the South Indian Ocean Convergence Zone, the Mozambique Channel Trough and southern African rainfall

Rondrotiana Barimalala, Fabien Desbiolles, Ross C. Blamey, and Chris Reason

We show that the topography of Madagascar is essential to adequately simulate the atmospheric circulation and rainfall over southern Africa and the neighboring southwest Indian Ocean. By conducting a set of numerical experiments, we evaluate the role of Madagascar and…

From Amazonia to southern Africa: Atmospheric moisture transport through Low Level Jets and Atmospheric Rivers

Alexandre M. Ramos, Ross C. Blamey, Iago Algarra, Raquel Nieto, Luis Gimeno, Ricardo Tomé, Chris J.C. Reason, and Ricardo M. Trigo

A Lagrangian analysis is applied to identify the main moisture source areas associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs) making landfall along the west coast of South Africa during the extended austral winter months from 1980 to 2014. The results show that…

The role of regional circulation features in regulating El Nino climate impacts over Southern Africa: a comparison of the 2015/16 drought with previous events

R. C. Blamey; S. R. Kolusu; P. Mahlalela; M. C. Todd; C. J. C. Reason

Extremely dry conditions were experienced across most of southern Africa during the austral summer (October–March) of 2015/2016, associated with one of the strongest observed El Niño events in the Pacific. Dry conditions peaked in the early austral summer months (October–December)…

What can climate services learn from theory and practice of co-production?

Katharine Vincent,Meaghan Daly, Claire Scannell, Bill Leathes

Co-produced climate services are increasingly recognised as a means of improving the effective generation and utilisation of climate information to inform decision-making and support adaptation to climate change, particularly in developing countries. There is a rich literature outlining the theoretical…

Stronger Local Overturning in Convective‐Permitting Regional Climate Model Improves Simulation of the Subtropical Annual Cycle

Neil C. G. Hart, Richard Washington, and Rachel A. Stratton

Global climate models fail to represent the annual cycle of tropical‐extratropical cloud bands and produce too much summer rainfall over subtropical southern Africa. This study demonstrates that running a regional convective‐permitting climate simulation alleviates these biases, counteracting biases that are…